Friday, February 20, 2009

Will Matt Stafford Be Worth Your TIme?

Matt Stafford, so far, is the consensus number 1 pick in the draft. We are still in the pre-combine stages, though after this weekend's event, there should be a pretty good idea of what to expect from the players. But, with the Lions at #1, still hosting the worst record ever posted by a modern era team, will Matt Stafford be worth your time come opening day 2009?

If you take a look back at the way the hobby values top QBs, its been hit and miss at best. Eli Manning was a big hobby all star, but he also plays in NY. Matty Ice was the star of his class, and put up a memorable RC season with a rebuilding team to accomplish it. Then again, Jamarcus Russell's value has plummetted with his awful season with the Raiders, and Alex Smith is about to lose his job after being the #1 pick with the Niners.

Matt Stafford is coming into a situation that has no where to go but up, it could be a different story. Stafford will probably sit a year and let John Kitna finish out his deal, or wont start until late in the season (barring another awful start or injury). That fact alone will automatically hurt value a tiny bit, though some prospectors dont mind the wait.

Stafford, also when you think about it, is only the #1 pick because Bradford and Tebow decided to stay in school. When teams are forced to settle, it doesnt usually work out. Then again, with very nature of the position, anything is possible (IE Tom Brady).

I think if you are a Bulldogs fan, go for it, collect what you like. If you are looking for your RC to collect for 2009, I would think twice about shelling out top $ for his cards. Yeah, you may end up smacking yourself for missing out on his shit, but really, its not worth the risk based on the situation. Hell, if he aint signed by draft day, I would DEFINITELY think twice, because a holdout is always a possibility with a situation like the lions this year or the Raiders in 2007.

Personally, I think a guy like Josh Freeman would be a better bet because his cards will be cheap to start, and if he makes it onto the field, you should have a pretty good return in your investment. I would love to see him drafted by the Vikes at 22, but as things shape up with the Jets, that may not be possible. Of course, the higher he is drafted, the higher his cards will cost, so watch out.

Right now, pre combine, here is where I would put the hobby value of the RCs:

1. Matt Stafford
2. Michael Crabtree
3. Mark Sanchez
4. Knowshon Moreno
5. Beanie Wells
6. Josh Freeman
7. Percy Harvin (tie)
7. Jeremy Maclin (tie)
9. LeSean McCoy
10. Darrius Heyward-Bey

We will see once UD Draft is released where these guys are, but with everyone trying to get in on the post draft action, including Topps with their ridiculous offerings, who knows.


  1. No way Tebow would have gone #1... Bradford maybe, but I think Stafford's objectives far outshine Bradford's. Stafford will demolish the combine and cement his #1 draft pick spot. That said, I saw every game (literally, EVERY game) of his college, career. Most in person, but a couple on TV. He has the size, arm strength, elusiveness, tackle-breaking, and agility you want from an NFL QB and is a better scrambler than he gets credit for. Think more Steve Young than Michael Vick, though. While he is smart and capable of learning and understanding a playbook, his Achilles heel was his decision-making. He would sometimes overlook a nice 6-yard out in favor of the 40-yard big play. Sometimes it worked out... many times it didn't. I think you'll see Stafford put up some gawdy YPC numbers in the NFL, but his PlayStation football style of play will inevitably lead to an inordinate amount of INTs and probably a less-than-stellar completion %. Expect Calvin Johnson's stock to go through the roof with Stafford behind center though... they will develop a rapport and CJ could be looking at some pretty impressive TD and YPC numbers. As far as Stafford goes, I would not expect him to be the next Matt Ryan, Brett Favre, or Peyton Manning, although there is no way he falls off the earth like Alex Smith. If he can get his decision-making and big-play tendencies under control, he could easily make a nice career for himself. But for now, I would proceed with caution.

  2. How about Aaron Maybin, the dominating DE from Penn State? He could be a top 10 pick. Will his cards have less value because he's a defensive player? I know that I'll try to pick up some of his cards and all of the other PSU draft picks.

  3. Kitna's all but done in Detroit. Jets allegedly are interested in him backing up Kellen Clemens. Detroit's QB situation, draft not considered, is Culpepper and Orlovsky he re-signs.
    I am a Lions fan. I'm begging them, please don't take a QB. There is no offensive line of any consequence in place. If you draft Stafford, Sanchez, etc., with the intention of them playing in 2009, you are setting them up to fail.
    Lions, please go the un-sexy but necessary route and take Andre Smith out of Alabama.
    /rant off

    Gellman, keep up the good work on behalf of all us pancreatically challenged hobbyists (and all hobbyists too, I suppose ...)

  4. I would say that Maybin will be a great player, but Defensive players are never worth anything in this hobby.

  5. Matt, the OLine is always the best way to go, expecially when you have a chance at a guy who will anchor your line from day 1 through the next 10 years. Thats why the tackles are so important. If any other team had that pick, thats the way they would go.


    Not the Lions! Anything but the Lions! He gave up his senior year to go to Detroit?!? Aaaaaaargh the pain... the pain...

  7. Tebow would not been drafted in round #1 or #2, he's just not suited for the NFL.

  8. You forgot Butkus Award winning LB Aaron Curry. The guy is a BEAST and is going to be a top ten, maybe top 5 pick and an impact player right away. I'm assuming since he's a defensive guy, his rookie cards will be available for pretty cheap . . . in the early going.

  9. Gellman, you think Crabtree that high? Usually I would say whoever the top 2 RBs drafted over the first receiver. Exeption being Calvin.

    And serious question here for Lions fans, have yall given up on Stanton?

  10. no way the Lions go QB with #1... they'll go O Line.
    No hobby joy there...