Friday, November 14, 2008

Value Bump MVPs - First Half

We are coming up on the start of the second half of the season, and I wanted to go through and give you my perspective on what the hobby looks like based on the stories from the first 8 games. There have been quite a few bumps, and I think there is some major topics to cover based on those. These arent your typical awards, mainly because this is based on the hobby rather than performance on the field. However, performance factors in, so take it as you will.

Collector Rookie of the First Half - Chris Johnson

Coming into the season, there were a few Running Backs who we thought would be the guy to bank on, and prices showed that. McFadden, Jones, Stewart, etc, but Chris Johnson was no where to be found in that company. Matt Ryan, Chad Henne and Brian Brohm had a following as the top QBs in the draft, especially Ryan, so they were already high priced. Then, once people saw the autograph Fail-VP in action, his cards jumped. Matt Forte also had a jump, but was already higher on the list after Benson was benched and he was named the started. That is why the guy with the Prize is Mr "Death By Sharpie," Chris Johnson.

He leads the league in RC rushing yards, rushing TDs, Yds/Game avg, and YPC avg. He also has the second highest number of first downs gained, and the number of rushes over 20 yards with 5.

Biggest RC Disappointment of the First Half - Rashard Mendenhall

A top prospect going into the season with a great team makes you valuable in this hobby. Too bad Mendenhall's value dropped faster than George Bush's approval rating once people saw the future "star" on the sideline with chronic fumblitis. He got into a game or two, but was usually limited in his carries, and ended up getting hurt before he could accomplish anything. This runner up for the autograph Fail-VP went from a nice pull to another Eric Ainge pull, and a lot of collectors were left holding the bag. That sucked.

McFadden was a person who was among the finalists too, but he spent more time on the field, and his cards are actually still pretty valuable. Mendenhall, not so much.

Biggest Bump Among Non-RCs - Brandon Jacobs

Its funny that people in bigger markets like Jacobs, never get any attention unless they are the cornerstone of a team. Well, Jacobs has finally gotten a portion of the spotlight, and his cards have reflected as such. He went from a 2 dollar auto pull to a considerable pull thanks to his beastly gains in both TD production and total yardage. It doesnt hurt that the Giants are having a good season, but good luck trying to get more than a two color patch out of these jersey fails.

He is fourth in the league in rushing, has a staggering 9 TDs to his credit, and is second in the league in rushes over 20 yards with 10. Pretty big bump there - check out his stats from last year.

Comback Hobby Player of the First Half - LenDale White

9-0? Check. 11 TDs? Check. Facemask that is squished against your face? Check. Huge hobby bump from last year? Check.

When LenDale white came out of last season, the guy must have known that things werent going as planned. When he saw that Kerry Fucking Collins was signaled as the starter when Vince-y boy went down, he must have thought it would have been a long season. Luckily this guy is a goal line cloverfield, and scores more TDs than some entire teams. That will get you far in this hobby. 2006 was a hobby super year (not so much now), and White was riding Bush's coattails into a semi-valuable hobby following. Once he got on the field and people saw his production, or lack there of, his value plummeted. Now, finally, its back up. Congrats.

Biggest Hobby Disappointment, First Half - Vince Young

Holy crap. I dont even know where to start with the golden boy. First he says he doesnt know if he wants to play football anymore, then he gets injured, and finally he goes off on a 3 day quest to find himself that makes people start a suicide watch for him. What a mess. He is now back on the sidelines, but he is already with the rest of the class of '06 in the dumps. If you are still holding his shit, you are dumber than I thought you were.

Thing That No One Could Imagine Happening In a Million Years - Adrian Peterson Holding His Value From Last Year's Boom.

I predicted that Purple Jesus would get crucified when he didnt put up monster numbers behind an AWFUL team. What didnt expect was this guy to emerge as THE leader on the team and blow everyone away with his tenacity and production. He has held his value, and that is fucking scary considering where it was following a ROY, Pro-Bowl MVP (Meaningless, but still drives value), and the NFL record for yards in a single game.

So far, he is leading the league in rushing yards, YPC avg, and runs over 20 yards with a ridiculous 14. He is second in first downs acheived, and just about every other secondary category. That is beast mode activated, right Marshawn?

Brightest 2nd Half Hobby Future - Matt Ryan

I never expected a rookie QB to have success, ever. The game is just too tough to learn without any experience, look at the best in the business, and none of them did well their RC season (if they even played). Ryan is different, and to tell you the truth, he needed to be, in a franchise coming off the Michael Vick scandal. If he continues to be awesome, the Falcons have a good shot at making the playoffs behind him. I am watching for sure.

The Kurt Warner Award For Coming Out of Nowhere to Be Awesome - Kurt Warner

I picked him up on my fantasy team to be a backup "just in case," yet he has been my starter week in and week out. The guy is putting up numbers and a half, and I gotta give it to him, it sounds awfully familiar. When the Rams won the Super Bowl, he was the story of the year coming from left field to lead a team to greatness. I think this is a similar situation, though they probably wont go anywhere in the playoffs. He leads the league in QB rating and is near the top in everything, despite missing Anquan Boldin for 2+ weeks.

Biggest Predicted Bump For Second Half - RCs on the Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are coming on strong and Ray Rice running behind Joe Flacco is proving to be a lethal combo for many defenses. Add in Willis McGahee, and you will have a big bump for these guys when they go pretty deep into the playoff hunt. When the season is over, both Rice and Flacco could be among the top RCs in value, behind Ryan and Chris Johnson.

I wouldnt count Jonathan Stewart out of it though.


  1. I'd take Matt Ryan and Matt Forte over Chris Johnson, especially considering CJ has no signature...

    Jacobs is a beast for sure, I'm lucky to be a collector of his stuff even though I've bought most of it lately and paid premium.

    Kurt Warner is my favorite QB of all time, I think he's amazing and he has shown it lately. Rookie of the year is now between Matt Ryan, Matt Forte and Chris Johnson, I don't see any1 else in the mix.

    I really hope for Giants vs Titans in superbowl...

  2. In terms of value, you are right that forte and ryan are ahead of him, but they were high before the season started. Chris Johnson was not, thats why I gave it to him, he has had the biggest upswing.