A Comment On Extreme Price Jumps

Over the last few weeks, Joe Mauer has been the best hitter on the Twins and possibly in the league, after returning from his injured back. I never really expected to see Joe have a good season, but when you are batting over .400, you have ECLIPSED your homerun total from last year, and have played brilliantly behind the plate, it requires some sort of attaboy from me and others around the league. What's even better is that Morneau is having just as great of a season so far as well, more than I ever expected to see from him. Hitting behind Mauer helps quite a bit, but I will give credit when credit is due, these guys are having cloverfield sized seasons this early.

That’s not the issue I have, however. My biggest thing is now Mauer's cards are so fucking expensive that I cant afford them anymore. As recent as two months ago, you could get his cards for close to nothing, and I did. Now, the cards are triple what I was used to paying for them, and I am quickly being priced out of the market. So, what do I do now? I have so much Mauer stuff that I could easily sell for a small fortune, but as a die-hard fan, I don’t think I could do it! My bat I got last year is going for over 300 in regular auctions, and my Bowman RC Auto is back over $100 for the first time in a while. For the first time since Peterson's 296 yard record game, I am in a prospector's dream position - I bought low and can sell high, but should I?

If it were any other player but my favorite, the stuff would be on eBay as we speak. My two baseballs, my bat, my mini helmet, my 40 auto cards, everything. However, I did not buy this stuff to sell it. I bought it for my own enjoyment, so that’s where it will stay. My advice to the rest of you who may find yourself in this position one day is to really determine what the stuff means to you. If you have something you could live without, sell it. If you cant, then don’t, pretty simple stuff. That’s the rules I live by, and I encourage you to take advantage of good prices when you can/want to.

There is still another pressing question, one that I may not have the answer to. When, during an epic price run, should you sell? You don’t want to hold it for too long until the player cools off and you miss your chance, but you also don’t want to sell too early and miss out on higher prices still. I have always had a rule in gambling, and I think it should factor in here as well, because prospecting a price of a card is like gambling in this industry. If I ever sit down at a Black Jack table or something similar, I will never risk anything past doubling my money, the odds are never in your favor that you will do much better than that. So why not just take the money and run? Sure, you could win more, but its more likely that you will lose everything back. With cards, I would never hold something longer than a 75% rise in value (100 rising to 175 dollars and such) unless there is an extenuating circumstance like I have with Mauer and Peterson. In football, do it as soon as possible, maybe even at 50% or less because the season is shorter and injuries are more likely.

Listen, when you have a bird in hand, don’t wait for it to become the two birds in the bush. Just take it, risk is never good in a hobby like this one, especially with the economy where it is. Why even take the chance if its something you are willing to dump? 99% of the time, you will be able to rebuy what you sell at a lower price. Then again, with a hobby also full of wax breakers who risk hundreds weekly, its not surprising to see someone try to hold something for value. Remember, and I have said this a million times, cards are not and never will be a good investment.

With Mauer, I am going to stay put, the stuff I have is too important to me, and most of it is personally obtained. I would say the same stuff about my AD collection, though the rest I would sell in a second if the price jumped. There is no reason for me to think any other way as Tom Brady and Albert Pujols were once in a lifetime opportunities, and I am not disturbed by the fact that I missed out on both.

Blog Bat Around: My Goofy Superfan Moment With My Favorite Player

During the summer of my senior year in college, I got some great info while listening to the radio in my car going to work. The announcer for KFAN, the sports talk station, announced that they would be sponsoring a signing of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau on the Saturday before I went back to Washington. It was going to be at a Best Buy, one that was a reasonable distance from my house, but I was determined to get there.

I arrived at work with a huge grin on my face, hoping that the schedule would be forgiving enough that I could make the signing. I knew I would need an hour to get to the Best Buy, a few hours to beat the throngs of fans that would be showing up, and twenty minutes to go home and change. Luckily, I was not working until the evening shift, which gave me two hours after the signing to get there without a problem. Clutch, right?

According to my plans, I needed to get two baseballs for them to sign, and maybe a few cards that I didn’t mind ruining if they got screwed up. After work, I went to target and went straight to the sporting goods section, only to find that the official balls cost 15 bucks a piece. I dug in my pocket and pulled out the tips from the night before, praying that I would have enough for the balls and some tax. As I counted the ones, I came to a total of 36 bucks, plus money for gas. It couldn’t be any more key, at least not to me!

The day arrived and I could not even stay focused enough to pack my stuff that I needed for the long drive we would be taking the next weekend. I actually showed up about four hours before I needed to be there, just to make sure I had a good spot in line for the signing. I was number 5 in the line, and little did I know how important that would be later. After buying a lawn chair at target to chill in, I started talking with the other people in line. It was awesome to see the stuff they had brought. One guy had a complete set of the Twins Medallions, mounted, framed, and signed by every player and manager except for Mauer and Morneau. Another guy had some framed lithographs that looked absolutely amazing, and I wished that I had something similar. A lot of people came with the mini batting helmets, which I thought were awesome. Me? I just had my balls and a few cards. I knew it would be one auto per person, and I collect the signed baseballs. That’s what I came for. I figured Id have another chance at Twinsfest for the fun stuff.

As the hours past, we talked about collecting and the evil shops from around the Minneapolis area, just having a whole afternoon of talking about the Twins and their future. Around 4, they let us into the store through a back entrance (we were waiting outside), and I finally saw the magnitude of how many people showed up. The parking lot was jammed, filled with about 700-800 people all circling this Best Buy. It was a sea of people, and more showed up every minute.

I was still number five in line, and they brought us in to stand next to the podium and stage they had set up. After about ten minutes, we heard cheers coming from the back, which we knew were Joe and Justin coming into the store. They had a security escort through the back of the store, but you could tell they were just there to have fun. Justin asked me how long I had been waiting, and I said that I had been there since before noon. He thanked me for the support, shook my hand, and went to go sit down at his spot. I had brought along a blue ball point, but I saw that they had hundreds of pens on the table. I didn’t take any chances, so I had mine at the ready.

Joe was first and I put the ball, as instructed on the table for him to sign. He was signing on the sweet spot for the guy before me, so I was going to nicely ask for the same. I wasn’t going to sell the ball, but for display purposes, I needed a sweet spot sig for my collection. Before I had the chance to say anything, he picked up the ball and signed the loop, much to my surprise. My mouth kind of dropped open with a partial word, and he realized that I wanted something different. He said, "Oh, dude, im really sorry, I thought Justin AND I were going to sign this one." I (very nicely, considering my shock) said, "No, its cool, my fault, can you please sign it again on the sweet spot?" He laughed and sort of gave me the 'you sure about this?' look before doing it. He signed again, and we both laughed pretty hard. He hit Justin on the shoulder and showed him the ball, and the Justin laughed.

I handed Justin a fresh ball, and he said, "should I do this one three times?" but I just laughed and said that he should sign the sweet spot. He chuckled and happily obliged. He thanked me again for waiting in line, and I started to leave. Joe shouted that he was sorry again, and I gave him a signal that it was cool with me. I mean, how often do you have a story like that? I still have both the balls, and I still tell the story to the people who come over and see my display. They always laugh about it with me, because they know it was all a part of the chase.

Funny enough, I went to Twinsfest that year with my then girlfriend (now wife), who was madly in love with Justin. Mauer and him were signing together again, and I couldn’t resist the temptation to get more stuff signed. She had a few balls with her, and I advised her that she needs to TELL Joe to sign on the sweet spot, because otherwise it will end up like my other one. As we approached she got kind of scared, but eventually lightened up. Justin signed her ball and picture, but she couldn’t bring herself to confess her love, thank god. She did just as I had told her with Joe, and he happily did what she said. Joe took one look at me and said, "Man, I promise I wont screw yours up this time!" Justin laughed, I laughed, and I told him I didn’t bring a ball this time, because I didn’t trust him. He laughed again, and signed my mini batting helmet perfectly.

You know, its these types of stories that makes me feel good about being a fan. You know that players who have a good time have the best fans, and you can count me among that bunch. Mauer and Morneau are my favorites, even though my wife said she would divorce me to marry Justin.

2008 Minnesota Twins Prediction Preview

Well, the 2009 baseball season is upon us, and there is around a month until opening day. I always love the beginning of the season, just like I do with the NFL kickoff, because everyone is starting with a clean slate. I think this year will be a VERY entertaining year, as there are a lot of old faces in new places, as well as some teams coming back that are hungry for a repeat of 2008.

Of course, the most important team for me is the Twins, who have taken a few chances during the off season on some free agents that may net them some improvement over 2008. I think they have as much of a chance to win the division as they did at the beginning of last year, but this time things are a bit different. First off, everyone is a year older, and that will be huge for the Twins' young rotation and outfield corps. They are one of the youngest teams in those respects and I think the years worth of experience will prove to be important. The other thing that will be intrinsic to the Twins success or failure is the other teams in the division, as the Royals and Indians both got somewhat better, and the Tigers only need to put it together to be a perennial contender. Last year the Tigers epically fell apart, and ended up in a race for second to last with the Royals. I doubt it will be the same this year, but the Tigers are on the losing end of age with both Sheffield, Ordonez, and a few others decending down the peak of their careers in my opinion. Although, with Granderson and Cabrera, they have a young core that could make them the team to beat in the central. Add Verlander, who is coming off an awful 2008 campaign, and you could be more than just division champs. Of course, that is all if they can convert their talent on paper to success in the win column.

The Twins nucleus is the same as last year with a new face peppered here and there in the line up. I expect that if they perform at the same level they did last year, we can probably be near or at the top of the central.

Joe Mauer

Mr. Mauer is my favorite player as I have well documented on this site, and I will say that he should have been the MVP last year. I don’t have a talent for Sabremetrics, but it has been shown on numerous sites, that his season should have been the one. Of course, because baseball writers are about as smart and connected as Beckett is to the card industry, Pedroia got the nod.
This year should be a little different as off season kidney surgery has the Twins taking it slow this spring with Joe. This means he will have to work on his timing and swing as he can, but it probably wont develop until a week or two into the season at best. Joe is one of the most competitive guys on the team, which means he will work harder than anyone to come back strong, but that can only offer so much.

My prediction: .310 avg, 70 rbi, 10 HR - yes I know that this is a prediction for the last things you can use to measure a player, but as said before, if I could use sabres more to my advantage I would. Plus, these stats are more universal and people will get a better measure of my prediction.

Justin Morneau

Morneau had his third amazing season in a row and finished second in the MVP voting. He has immesurable power and improved his hitting skills so that his OPS, his SLG % and all the stuff like that went up. Last year, I thought he would have a humungous year and I was good to have that inclination. The guy is a monster.

I expect that Morneau will be as good or better than he was last year because of his futher experience, and lack of any injuries coming in. I think he has a good shot at being at the top of the MVP voting again if the Twins have a good season, but who knows with them. Morneau has had horrible second halves for the last few years, and I hope he doesn’t tail off like he did before. That would doom us to another playoff-less season.

My prediction: .301 avg, 135 rbi, 35 HR

Fransisco Liriano

The F-bomb came back with a vengence last year after being sent down to the minors due to being sucky during the beginning of the season. I cant tell you how good that made me feel, especially when he looked like he wouldn’t ever be back like he was before his injury.

This year should be more of the same from last year, as I expect that with a few new pitches and a better arm, he should be back to his old self. He wont ever have that nasty slider that he used to, but he should manage with what he has.

My Prediction: 3.50 era, 150+ strikeouts, 1.1 WHIP - yes, I know, Wins and losses are not included here. Its because they suck as a stat. The others arent much better, but its better than fucking wins and losses.

The Rest of the Rotation

2008 was a great year for Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, and Kevin Slowey. All are young guys who have really nasty stuff. The only thing is that they didn’t have the experience to make that nasty stuff work as it should for them. They went deep into counts and gave up a TON of HRs, and it was tough to watch them at times.

This year, I guarantee will be a different story. There is nothing more valuable to a pitcher than experience, and I think that with good coaching, they will be one of the better rotations out there in a year or two. Only time will tell if they can put some of those pieces together early so the Twins can have a chance.

Joe Crede

Crede spent most of 2008 dealing with his aching back. He hasn’t played a full injury free season since 2006. Despite those obvious deterrants, he is still an upgrade over last year, as long as he can stay in playing shape. He should have a good bat, and a great glove, but I don’t see him lasting the year. That means that Brian Buscher, Alexi Casilla and Brendan Harris will need to step up.

My Prediction: .275 avg, 48 rbi, 10 HR (115 games)

Overall, I think the Twins have a real shot if they can duplicate the things that made them successful in 2008. If they can improve in the field and even a little at the plate, they can be great. If they drop in any category, you can expect them near the bottom in the division.

My Prediction: 85-77, 2nd place.

David Versus A Goliath Of Assholes

Well, in about 2 hours, the Twins and White Sox will face off for the AL Central Division. I want the Twins to win, of course, but I have decided that I want the White Sox to lose more than that. What I mean is that I hate, hate, HATE, the White Sox, and I think it would be better for Baseball if they lost.

My reasoning is this: The Twins have the least amount of HRs in the AL and are more known for hitting for average, getting on base and running around. That is what makes a game fun to watch. They also have a pretty tiny payroll, and are not known for going out and buying a team. The White Sox are known for building/buying/trading for a team centered around players who hit .245 and socking 30 dingers. That sucks. Basically, if the Sox dont hit 3 home runs, they lose - and they have pretty much done that for the majority of the games. I dont think that is that fun to watch, as I would much rather see a three triple game, than a three home run game.

Of course this is coming from me, a person whose favorite player is Joe Mauer, the guy who hits .330 and 10 HRs a year with amazing, amazing defense. That is what I cherish in a player, the guy who doesnt need to swing for the fences to help his team win. He also is very close to the top in Win Shares, so I think he does help out more than people think. I also think he is one of the most well liked players around, which says a lot for the soft spoken catcher.

Funny shit from early may - who called this bitch?!? Thats right motherfuckers, ME.

Then we have Señor Bag O' Crap, AJ Pierzynski - the complete opposite of everything I just talked about. He plays dirty, he runs his mouth, and is pretty much the most hated player in the game. I hated him when he was a Twin, I hate him more now that he plays for Chicago. This is the guy that tried TWICE to injure Justin Morneau last year by stepping on his ankle running down the first base line on a routine ground out. Then again, we got three awesome players for him back in 2003 or whatever, so maybe I should be thankful he was a Twin. Funny enough, he was enough of a cancer in the clubhouse that they got rid of him, so San Fran basically gave up everything for nothing.

Guillen, although he gives the Twins credit for being as good as they are, sucks at life. He says awful things on a regular basis, and is more interested in being in the controversy spotlight than putting out a good lineup every day. I love seeing him lose, it warms my fuzzies like nothing else. He deserves nothing but shit from everyone, and I think even he knows that his managerial career is a joke now.

Guys, I know the White Sox will probably win, but thats fine, we exhausted them to a point where a deep playoff run is most likely not going to happen. The series sweep from last week was a bright point for the last five years, and it was nice to see Mauer win another batting title this year. For a team that was supposed to finish 4th, its cool to see them get this close.

Twins Take Series and Doom Guillen's Soul To An Eternity Of Sucktitude

Even if the Twins dont win the division at the end of all this, it was so fucking satisfying to see the White Sox fall on their face. I can see Guillen walking into the clubhouse shouting a diarrhea of unitelligible swear words about how his team sucks or the Twins are the best thing since sliced bread, or whatever, I dont care.

WHAT A FUCKING SERIES, THANK YOU BASEBALL GODS!!

Also thanks to Joe Mauer, Carlos Gomez and Denard Span for being fucking awesome. It just shows that building a team around players who hit .240 and 32 home runs doesnt always guarantee you a good team.

TJCL: A Response? Kind of.

As I mentioned before, Chris Harris has taken to writing about Joe Collectors in a defining fashion, and to tell you the truth, Im pretty happy about it. His latest entry on Things Joe Collectors Like, is a little off though, and I want people to get the real(er) story based on my take of things.

Chris isnt completely wrong when he says that JCs love hits, that’s assumed. But, the problem is that 95% of the collecting hobby does the same thing. We look for the stuff that makes us the most happy, and an Autograph or Jersey card usually does that for me better than a base card. Ive said before that I don’t bust THAT much stuff, but when I do, I enjoy getting cool "relics" and autos of my favorite players. When I search for All Day, Mauer and Morneau on TWGM, I don’t search for the base, I don’t need to buy those. However, when I see a ridiculously cool Auto, im in it like a soldier in the shit.

The difference between the JCs and the PP, or Privileged Portion of collectors who are up on what they need to be up on (Please update your SCU glossary), is that when a JC pulls a "hit" they go fucking nutso, and they must post said hit on a message board with tons of exclamation points and some brain fart incarnation of MOJO. When someone who doesn’t have a mental imbalance pulls a hit, we put it aside and bask in the bright light of coolness for the card. If it ever makes it on to a message board, or blog in this case, we are realistic and calm, and no exclamation points or MOJO is used. We don’t say "SICK HIT!!!!!!!!!" and we don’t say "OMFGKGFLK MOJOZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SUPERMAN-JO!!!!!!!!!!!" for any reason whatsoever.

Ladies and gents, welcome to the PP. Wear your badge proudly.

Breaking the Bank On Something Other Than Cards

Ladies and gents, its official, today my fiancee and I booked the place for our wedding in November. I know this has nothing to do with this blog, but this epic event in my life has brought about a number of observations about the hobby and its relation to my future wife. Cmon people, I know you have this problem too.

As it stands right now, my girlfriend (I hate the word fiancee) HATES when I spend money on cards. When I say "hates," I mean she will tear off my pinky if she hears that I did tap the bank account for anything. According to our agreement, the only time I can spend money is when I have sold something on eBay to counteract it, or if I "disguise" it as another "necessary expense."

Basically when it comes down to it, women don’t like any hobby where you have to spend money on something other than them (Mario, be quiet). That’s not to say my girlfriend doesn’t love sports, though. I lucked out there. For example, when she was thinking of a way for our families to meet a few years ago, she chose a Twins game to do it. Everyone had fun and it wasnt as bad as I imagined in my head. In fact, for my birthday during the first year we were dating, she bought me 1st baseline tickets to the Twins and Red Sox game. It was completely unexpected and completely awesome. Of course, she picks her favorite players by how "hot" they are, so naturally, Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer are her favorites. This is pretty good in the long run, because both of those guys are favorites of mine as well. Plus, I can watch the games on TV without objection because she is usually watching too.

A good biproduct of this is that in the past, she has actually allowed purchases of some cards because I said they could be "hers." This meant that she could tell people that she owns them if they ever question me about them. In all reality, they just sit on the display next to mine, and until now, no one has asked whose they are. Yeah, relationships can be a tough nut to crack. Personally, I think its too much of a double standard, because when we spent money to get her new designer purse, she didn’t say boo. Figures.

I even tried to explain my cards as an investment for us in the future. I knew this wasn’t the case because A) the cards I have would never be sold, B) they would never gain THAT much value, and C) Investing in cards is stupid. She literally steamrolled my plan for relationship hobby domination in 30 seconds. She knew exactly what was up, especially when she knew what would be coming up on our bank statement on a bi-weekly basis.

For those of you making the whip noise in your head, that’s fine. I understand that I may not have the "hand" in the relationship when it comes to spending money on stupid "investments." Yet, despite my lack of funds to spend on cards, I DO have plenty to put down a deposit on a beautiful mansion for our wedding, something MUCH more important than any auto could ever be. So HA!

A Thank You Note To The Twins

I would love to personally congratulate the Twins on coming back from down a whole hand's worth of runs (five) against the leagues worst team (at this moment) in the top of the 9th, to win it in 10. They did all of this despite an 0-5 performance from Mauer, who is 0-9 in the series, and an 0-4 night from Cuddyer. Morneau, you ask? EN FUEGO. Im guessing his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is hugemungous for this series, and he has made the last few weeks his bitch. Thank you Justin, thank you.



So, with the White Sox performing well above expectations, and the Indians and Royals falling apart, I hope the Twins continue to take advantage of stupid baseball teams making awful decisions like Royals have done on a consistent basis.

God knows, my Mauer and Morneau collection needs your help!!