Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Keep vs. Sell In the Wake of the Upper Deck Lawsuit

Selling upon release is always better idea with any box pulls, if not only because of the 20% increase in price with all of the people looking to buy a new product. Its even more important with sets like Ultimate Collection baseball and SP Authentic because of recent revelations of the MLBP Lawsuit against Upper Deck. This holds doubly true for redemptions, which may not ever be fufilled if MLBP wins their case.

All around the boards lately, people have been asking whether to hold or sell with certain cards, and my response has always been the same. If you don’t like the player and/or it’s a redemption you have to sell now. For SPA, the NFL off season lull is less than a month away, and once that initial 20% bump wears off, you are going to be stuck with selling the card under value, or waiting for next season to start ramping up. On top of that, you are also going to deal with the possible bankruptcy of the company producing the cards, meaning an even larger loss in value. For Ultimate Collection, the faking threshold is coming up fast, and at that point people start questioning everything. When people question authenticity, card prices drop, and you have missed out on selling at a huge premium because of the massive amount of product hype.

For redemptions, there are two sides to the story. First, if you have a redemption for one of the SPA rookie auto patches, there is a chance the card could be in your hands before April 19th. The problem is, there have have been rumors floating around that the people who didn’t sign, didn’t because they werent paid or objected to doing so. That is bad for business and it means that you may be left out in the cold when the reaper comes for UD brass. Second if it’s a redemption for an Ultimate baseball vet/star auto or a dual out of SPA, you need to make a decision quick. There is always a chance that people who have signed before will get their cards done more quickly than a rookie, but again, its just over 2 months until April 19th.

Also, if you are thinking of buying any redemptions, don’t. Simple as that. Its too big of a risk if you are going to redeem, and if you think that you will be one of the lucky ones, you probably wont be. Redemptions factor in two different sides of things, the players and the producers, and this time you don’t have the luxury of waiting on the players. Funny enough, I will say that if April 19th comes, and the decision is made IN Upper Deck's favor, that may be the best time to buy and sell your target redemptions.

When it comes to the settlement of the Upper Deck Lawsuit brought by MLBP, there are many more people that stand to lose than stand to win. I have said on in many recent posts that losing a part of the market is never a good thing for anyone, especially when it will affect a big three company like Upper Deck. In this case, it will have an impact on existing products and thousands of people who are banking on their cards, which may be worse than we can even fathom right now. Either way, now is the time to get your head above the fray, especially in your ability to avoid risks that you have control over.

5 comments:

  1. If you get a redemption that you are not a fan of, I'd call UD and see what options you have for a replacement card! You may be able to get a card to keep in your PC!

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  2. I hate redemptions as much as the next rodent, and since I mainly open product for my collection (which means they need to be on-card auto heavy), they are doubly frustrating. I'd probably sell any I get ASAP, just in case.

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  3. Um, Wax Wombat, Wombats are Marsupials, not rodents. That's what happens when you get foreigners pretending to be Australians....

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  4. I just bought a redemption last night (Beanie Wells/Laurinaitis/Robiskie) triple auto. I'm a little concerned, but it was at a decent price. I'm sure the low price was due to the possibilities of the card not being signed. I'm expecting UD to be ok when all is said and done. Though I feel that is just because I'm a big UD homer.

    I also got shorted the memorabilia/autograph hit in my box of SPA I bought, luckily I got a case # from UD, and mailed my hologram and a letter today and the CSR said it will get taken care of, we shall see.

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  5. I never said I was pretending to be anything, Alex. I know what wombats are. I was simply playing on the fact that they look like most rodents. Lighten up, will ya?

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