Monday, September 14, 2009

NFL Rookie Battle Royale: Week 1

Thank the fucking lord its football time again. That’s all I gotta say. Yesterday was almost an out of body experience, as it was awesome just to take in all the action. I spent the entire morning gearing up for the Vikings game, and when it came time, my excitement was at critical mass. Now that Sunday is over, the Vikings are huge winners, and we have some idea as to a few rookie roles, I want to go over the weekly rookie recap for all you prospectors out there. Each week, in place of last year's value bumps, ill run down some of the top rookie performances and go over what it should mean for their cards. Hopefully this can help a few of you out. It has only been one game, small sample size rule in effect, so take this as you will.

Mark Sanchez

From the beginning of it all, Sanchez was pretty highly touted as the one NFL ready QB in the draft. He gave a lot of credibility to that sentiment as he led his team to a big victory over the Texans. His TD was a wide open throw to Chansi Stuckey, but the rest of his performance wasn’t as easy. You can bet dollars to donuts that his cards are going to spike this week due to his good game, but im sure there will be just as many bad weeks as there are good ones. Be wary of holding his stuff too long, however, Sanchez did look like the real deal.

Matthew Stafford

It was established early on that Stafford was going to have a very tough time doing well with such a poor team in front of him. Yesterday was definitely a testament to that as he threw three interceptions and no touchdowns in a Lions loss. Granted, the Saints are one of the better teams in the league, and a tough start to a career that is going to be rough at first, but Stafford did not perform very well. The Lions were kind of in it for some of the game, but no one doubted the success of Brees and company who rolled all over them in the fourth quarter. Stafford's value shouldn’t drop too much, but it was never a wise idea to hold him in the first place.

Percy Harvin

When Sunday's game ended, I was practically shaking from the excitement over what the combination of AD, Favre and Harvin could bring. Harvin was the only non-QB rookie to score a TD on Sunday, and had some KEY runs and catches near the goal line to help the Vikings. He was as good a decoy in addition, as I saw the Browns try to account for him every time he stepped onto the field. He also had a couple good kick returns that set up the team close to the 50, and should be a major contributor in the futrure for the Vikings. He isnt going to be 1998 Randy Moss this year, but he is worth a look either way. His values are already pretty high, so it may be better to wait until he cools off a little, but once he does, get on it.

Beanie Wells

For every OSU fan in the world, there are probably three OSU haters, all of who's eyes were on Wells yesterday. He got as many carries as Hightower, but didn’t get much of a good look due to a good showing by the Niners' defense. I would say that Wells should end up with one of the better seasons for the rookie RBs, but he will need to improve dramatically. There was one play where he just went the wrong direction and basically left a 38 year old Warner to fend for himself, something that will not fly in this league. Its mistakes like those that could hurt him, though I doubt it will happen again.

LeSean McCoy

Many of us were on board with McCoy before the Eagles even took him in the draft. When the Eagles did take him, a lot of collectors saw a lot of room for growth behind Westbrook, who was coming off an injury season. Its great to see that McCoy put up the best numbers of all the big rookie running backs, even though it was only 46 yards. He should have a good season, though the McNabb injury definitely hurts those chances. I would say that him and Donald Brown will fight it out for best rookie back after it is all said and done, even moreso if Westbrook goes down again.

Donald Brown

Brown got some carries yesterday, though he only averaged 3 yards per. Addai is going to be the focus until he cant run, so Brown will be delegated to off series. He should do pretty well, if only because the Colts will do well, and could put up a five or six TD season. I wouldn’t go running out to buy any of the rookie back cards, but Brown is cheap enough that it may not be a bad idea. His value didn’t go very high in the off season because he didn’t have throngs of college fans chasing his stuff, but he should be good enough for you to take a look at.

Knowshon Moreno

I don’t think yesterday's game was a good measure of Moreno's potential, mainly because NO ONE did well, but I think his eight carries for nothing bear some concern for the people that have him as a target. Peyton Hillis looked like he went down, meaning Moreno's carries will go up, but he needs to perform even when he is back number three. I say that Moreno shouldn’t have a bad season, its just not going to be crazy. If you are holding his cards, be sure to prepare yourself for a longer wait than I once expected.

Mike Wallace

Before Thursday, I didn’t know who Mike Wallace was. Much to the chagrin of Titans fans, he became the pride of Steelers nation after the game, basically securing a win for them with a huge catch in OT. His cards are not going to be worth anything until he shows any consistency, but you can see why his values went from scrub to a little more than scrub after his catch.

Johnny Knox

Last, but not least, Johnny Knox was week 1's top rookie receiver in terms of yardage, so far. He may have only caught 2 passes, but his 68 yarder was a step away from a TD. He caught another ball for more yards, making him a surprise for the Bears, also solidifying his place on the roster. Knox was not a premiere guy, so his autos are probably numbered pretty high, but that also means that you can easily pick a few of them up for a receiver who may make you a few dollars if he continues to play well.

Im still eager to see how Hey Bey and the other Monday night rookies perform tonight, but I am looking just as much towards next week with a few of the rookies with possible good games. I would look for Harvin against the Lions, Moreno against the Browns, and Brown against Miami.


  1. Kenny Britt really impressed me this week. He gets a bit lazy though. James Davis was getting solid reps and his blocking is right about where expected.

    Brian Hartline, i think, will end up having one hell of a season.

  2. James Davis looked like he got banged up running into the Williams wall like that.

  3. Wish your analysis of Wllace's value was true. Check completed auctions. Selling for as much as Percy. The fact he was the fasted guy in the draft and being on the Steelers of course does not hurt value.


  4. Wallace isnt at Harvin levels, but I cant believe some of his cards are going that high. Wide receiver cards are usually worth the least of the trio of skilled positions. My analysis was more long term, but from what I remember, before that game, his stuff was going for rookie premiere scrub money. Things have changed since thursday, obviously.

  5. The Williams' and their lawyer just ruined the CBA for everyone. I've never been so frustrated in my life -- taking a good faith agreement and screwing it into the ground.

    I agree that everyone should enjoy the right to a trial, but Minnesota's managed to have them eligible for last year's stretch run and then this year's opener.

    Now, Goodell's forced into allowing the Saints players to play.

    The Williams' may get to play, but now the contracts are going to be ridiculously strict.

    Ugh. Lame.

  6. gellman Wallaces were going for the same price they are now. Why I said search completed listings. I just did a search and Harvins are selling for maybe 10-20% higher. Before and after the season started.