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The NFL Rookie will be coming up next weekend, and here is the list of players that will be attending. There are some expected names on the list, but there are also a few question marks. Joe Haden, John Skelton and Jacoby Ford are alternates to the list.
The first Tim Tebow Prestige auto has been put up
Dexter McCluster Helmet AutoRolando McClain Draft AutoNow back to your regularly scheduled football nothingness. Ugh.
Oh, the NFL draft. My football oasis in a desert of Basketball and Baseball, how I love you. The intrigue, the anticipation, the surprises. You make my April awesome. Luckily for me, this year was no exception to the rule and last night was awesome. I got to see every pick and waited over three hours for the Vikings to….
…trade their pick to the Lions. Well, the wait begins for tonight.
I think there were definitely some ridiculous picks last night, especially in the top half of the first round, and ill get to those, including my winners and losers of the night. The winners were few and the losers were, well losers, but overall it was pretty damn exciting.
Surprises
The first surprise was really the redskins going with Williams over Okung, but that pales in comparison to the Jaguars drafting Alualu at ten. Let me explain my reaction with three letters: W. T. F. Seriously, I hadnt even heard of this guy, and I don’t think he was even on the list of the top 100 prospects. This was coming after a Raiders reach of Rolando McClain at 9, and when you overshadow a Raiders reach with a more ridiculous reach, someone needs to get fired. If the Jags liked Alualu so much, and he was going to be a 3rd rounder, they needed to trade down like normal people and stockpile picks rather than giving a guy like that the money a 10 pick gets. Holy shit.
The second surprise was definitely the Chargers moving up to get Ryan Matthews, a player who looks good but I don’t think was worth a 12 pick. Spiller was gone at nine to Buffalo, which left Matthews as the only good RB pick left deserving of first round status, thus putting Seattle in a position to get him. This must have scared San Diego enough to jump, and they did. Matthews should be good, but with Sproles there too, he should be better. The Chargers are a great team, and this could be a nice pick for them, even if it is way too high.
Speaking of Spiller to Buffalo, I would guess this spells the end of Beast Mode in the wing capital of the world. Lynch has had his share of off the field problems, 'natch, and adding Spiller is definitely an upgrade. However, when you have an O-Line like they do and a QB like they do, there are other options they should have considered. Almost all of the 300+ mocks I read had Bulaga going to Buffalo, and I think they will be sad they missed out.
Lastly, I think its surprising to see that all the top CBs went in the first round, many before 30 when I thought the Vikings would have their pick of the litter. Kyle Wilson's stock had jumped so much that a few of the beat reporters were saying that Cleveland was thinking about choosing him as early as 7. Wilson is good, but that good? I don’t think so.
Tim Tebow
My feelings on Tim Tebow, both as a person and as a player, are widely known around the net. But they focused on him so much that I almost had a stroke. Not just that, but every paper and every website did too. Never in the history of the draft had I ever seen a projected second round pick get more face time than the number 1 pick. When I saw that Denver was posturing again to pick him, and his family started putting on the Broncos hats, I let out a sigh of relief big enough to set off some car alarms in the street outside my apartment. Obviously Denver thought his intangibles were enough to burn a valuable pick on him, rather than focusing on measurables that show exactly why he is such a reach at 25 even. Whether it’s the motion, the accuracy, the offense, the track record of Gator QBs, the deck is way too stacked against him to even consider doing what they did. Do I think Tebow should have been considered a 2nd or 3rd rounder? Of course, because in those rounds, you can pick to develop. In the first round, you pick to better your team immediately. Tebow is not that pick.
Then, when you factor in Denver's recent past, there are even more questions. First you trade away a pro-bowl QB who is young and has a lot of upside. Then you trade away your best receiver, arguably one of the best in the league. You draft Demaryius Thomas who is a raw, unpolished and uproven version of Marshall, and Tebow, who cant even hold a candle to Cutler's jock in terms of skill. Does anyone see the issue with that? I would be rioting in the streets if I was a Denver fan. Add in that they just traded for Brady Quinn and the equation's variables are just ridiculous. Your team blew it worse than any team in NFL history last year, minus the Vikings in 05, and you are downgrading across the board? Like the Jags, someone needs to be fired, and I think when all is said and done, McDaniels is going to be the one getting Tim Te-boned.
. Since last night, there have been over 50 auctions posted for his Press Pass cards, with some ending over 150 dollars. Im not sure why people arent getting that once Prestige and Sweet Spot hit (if it ever does), these cards will be worth pennies on the dollar. Press Pass never holds value, and its pretty crazy that these are selling for as high as they are. , way below where I would expect it to. Not a good thing for people buying into these cards. They wont be worth 15 bucks come 2011, and not because of Clausen's projected production. where they were ending the previous week, a testament to how many people love Big D. Bryant's cards will continue to spike as long as he is on the field, and I would expect him to be one of the top valued rookies come the start of the season. 2. Bradford 3. Bryant 4. McCoy 5. Clausen
Showtime is less than an hour away, and I thought this would be a good chance to do my first every live blog of the draft. Since the Vikings are picking at thirty, and I will have to type out a very long and drawn out equivalent of "NOOOOOOOO!" if they draft Tebow, I think I should maybe have some fun along the way.
Thank the fucking lord its football time again. That’s all I gotta say. Yesterday was almost an out of body experience, as it was awesome just to take in all the action. I spent the entire morning gearing up for the Vikings game, and when it came time, my excitement was at critical mass. Now that Sunday is over, the Vikings are huge winners, and we have some idea as to a few rookie roles, I want to go over the weekly rookie recap for all you prospectors out there. Each week, in place of last year's value bumps, ill run down some of the top rookie performances and go over what it should mean for their cards. Hopefully this can help a few of you out. It has only been one game, small sample size rule in effect, so take this as you will.
Mark Sanchez
From the beginning of it all, Sanchez was pretty highly touted as the one NFL ready QB in the draft. He gave a lot of credibility to that sentiment as he led his team to a big victory over the Texans. His TD was a wide open throw to Chansi Stuckey, but the rest of his performance wasn’t as easy. You can bet dollars to donuts that his cards are going to spike this week due to his good game, but im sure there will be just as many bad weeks as there are good ones. Be wary of holding his stuff too long, however, Sanchez did look like the real deal.
Matthew Stafford
It was established early on that Stafford was going to have a very tough time doing well with such a poor team in front of him. Yesterday was definitely a testament to that as he threw three interceptions and no touchdowns in a Lions loss. Granted, the Saints are one of the better teams in the league, and a tough start to a career that is going to be rough at first, but Stafford did not perform very well. The Lions were kind of in it for some of the game, but no one doubted the success of Brees and company who rolled all over them in the fourth quarter. Stafford's value shouldn’t drop too much, but it was never a wise idea to hold him in the first place.
Percy Harvin
When Sunday's game ended, I was practically shaking from the excitement over what the combination of AD, Favre and Harvin could bring. Harvin was the only non-QB rookie to score a TD on Sunday, and had some KEY runs and catches near the goal line to help the Vikings. He was as good a decoy in addition, as I saw the Browns try to account for him every time he stepped onto the field. He also had a couple good kick returns that set up the team close to the 50, and should be a major contributor in the futrure for the Vikings. He isnt going to be 1998 Randy Moss this year, but he is worth a look either way. His values are already pretty high, so it may be better to wait until he cools off a little, but once he does, get on it.
Now that pretty much every single NFL team has opened camp, rookie signings are coming by the dozen. Teams are racing to get everyone in under the gun, which has led to a number of key rookies getting their contracts done.
So far, only 2 of the first 32 picks in the draft this year have been signed. That is a ridiculous number, to say the least, eventhough only a few are considered to be possible hold outs. Oddly enough, one of them is Andre "Sta-Puft" Smith, the guy who left the combine because he wasnt prepared for the biggest day of his professional life. Regardless of who actually signs eventually, its beyond crazy to think we are close to a month away from the beginning of the pre-season, and less than a few weeks from camp with less than 1/16th of the big rookies under contract.
Right now, the Eagles and Jeremy Maclin are pretty much the only non-negotiators in the field of players. Philly has already signed their entire draft class leaving only a portion of the 25% maximum left for Maclin's contract. Other than that, players are sitting around waiting for teams to get things going with negotiations or holding off until more first rounders are signed.
When it comes down to contract negotiations and people like Drew Rosenhaus, I hate this part of the year. It shouldnt be this hard to get rookies to sign on the dotted line. There should be set rookie contracts, because there is not a reason in fucking hell that Matt Stafford should be making more money than over 75% of the league's QBs.
With the season so close, I am hoping that things get done, and quick. Holdouts only mean disaster for everyone's team, everyone's cards, and everyone's investments when they hold out or dont sign. The rookies also are very aware of the fact that missing that first camp can be career crippling as well, so I dont think its them that have as many problems as their greedy agents and stingy team owners.
Can we get this done so I dont have to worry anymore?
Tomorrow, the 2nd product of the year is released in Bowman Draft, with UD Draft not far down the pipeline. I have gotten a few emails over the last weeks wondering which is a better product to buy, that is, IF you must buy one. I think at this time in the year, buying these type of products is completely stupid, unless you are a college collector or are going to flip everything right away. Regardless of current value, im going to break down pros and cons of each with the idea of answering as many of the questions I got as possible.
Bowman Draft Picks (Release 5/21/2009)
Format: Hobby and Jumbo boxes
Content: 1 auto per box in hobby, 2 in jumbo
Highlights: Signed auto patches and letters, guaranteed 1 per box in jumbo.
Price: $65 Hobby, $110 Jumbo
After opening a few packs last week at the Beanie Wells signing, the cards don’t look bad at all. The problem with Bowman Draft is that the content of this product is one base set with auto parallels, and the auto patches and that’s it. There are not any chrome, there are not any duals, and there are not even other auto sets with veterans in them based on what I saw and the checklist. On the other hand, the manuletters are signed on the letter this time, and base parallels have some real potential for early flips. If you are planning on getting a group A auto, better buy a lot as this product is loaded with no-namers, inserted at an alarming rate. But, if you do pull an A auto, you have hit the Jackpot at 1:900+ odds.
The pics on the cards are very good action shots, and I believe they do have draft day variations from my shotty memory of other people's pulls at the party. The base inserts, which you shouldn’t really care that much about, also have some nice graphics, which is nice. Here is what I would have liked, however, as this set would be perfect for OTA and Camp TTMs. Instead of the ultra gloss coating on the cards, make them semi gloss so they don’t turn out like my Wells sig. If you see my Prestige sigs from the Premiere, they signed THAT much better for that reason.
Lastly, the pack format for hobby looks like you get 1 orange un-numbered parallel per pack, and then two to three base parallels per box. Again, these are not refractors - you will have to wait on that until july. May not be a big deal now, but with a gigantic price tag on the jumbos, it will be important.
Upper Deck Draft (Release Scheduled 5/26/2009)
Format: Hobby Boxes Only
Content: 5 autos per box
Highlights: On card autos, and many multisigned cards.
Price: $85 Hobby
When the preview for UD draft came out earlier this year, I thought the design was ten times better than last year. The main issue with UD draft will always be that it will be succeeded by other UD products that far outshine this offering, so the content was upped this time from last year's 4 autos per box. The good news is that most of the time you have MUCH better odds at pulling nice sigs, and with 5 chances, most likely one should be a better guy from the Preimere. Of course, these cards have parallels that go all the way down to 1/1, naturally, so you may get luckier still if you manage to pull one. You also have quite a few multisigned cards from the top guys, and I believe there may even be some veteran sigs in there too - something that makes this product better 100%.
The product is not without drawbacks, as a hobby box of Draft will cost you much more than a hobby box of Bowman, so you do need to be careful. Also, the auto checklist is pretty deep, so you could end up with 5 scrubs and be down 90 bucks. I think that the potential with Draft is much better than the potential with Bowman, but the Draft Picks name with Bowman attached may be detremental to the success of this product based on Baseball's offerings. Collectors recognize Bowman in baseball as THE rookie card to have, and I have a feeling it may transfer to draft more than it ever did before. That could hurt overall lasting value of this set.
Lastly, as the year progresses, this set will be forgotten, which puts an expiration date on your pulls. Yet, if you want a cheap way to get your player's auto THIS is the set to buy it from. Bowman top guys will cost too much due to the shear ridiculous odds, and this set will have enough parallels to keep the price low enough for the commoners like me. I will be buying singles from this set for that reason along with the hard signed cards, and I may even splurge on a box if I can get a good deal.
Here is my verdict: If you are a set collector, buy the Bowman, it is right in your wheelhouse. If you like autos, buy the Draft, as it will provide you more bang for your buck with hard signed cards. If you have the patience, wait on both - as Heroes will be better, Icons will be better, and Classics is less than 2 months away for the first cards with rookies in their NFL jerseys. If you don’t fit into any of these categories, just buy the draft, you will be happier without a doubt. Design + 5 autos + hard signed cards + potential = Positive Stance on UD Draft.
Here the official list of the players to be present at the 2009 NFL Rookie Premiere:
Ramses Barden - Giants
Rhett Bomar - Giants
Kenny Britt - Titans
Andre Brown - Giants
Donald Brown - Colts
Deon Butler - Seattle
Glen Coffee - Niners
Michael Crabtree - Niners
Aaron Curry - Seahawks
Nate Davis - Niners
Josh Freeman - Bucs
Shonn Green - Jets
Percy Harvin - Vikings
Darrius Heyward Bey - Raiders
Juaquin Iglesias - Bears
Tyson Jackson - Chiefs
Jeremy Maclin - Eagles
Mohammed Massaquoi - Browns
LeSean McCoy - Eagles
Stephen McGee - Cowboys
Knowshon Moreno - Broncos
Hakeem Nicks - Giants
Brandon Pettigrew - Lions
Javon Ringer - Titans
Brian Robiskie - Browns
Mark Sanchez - Jets
Jason Smith - Rams
Matthew Stafford - Lions
Brandon Tate - Pats
Mike Thomas - Jags
Patrick Turner - Dolphins
Mike Wallace - Steelers
Chris Wells - Cards
Pat White - Dolphins
Derrick Williams - Lions
Interesting list, I definitely see all the players that SHOULD be there, are there. I also see some head scratchers, but those are always a given each year. Some notable exceptions are missing, mainly some of the QBs you would normally expect to see, and some of the defense guys like Maualunga. Either way, hopefully I can be there to cover it for SCU. Things are in the works, ill keep you all posted.
Here is the release:
TOP DRAFT PICKS MAKE DEBUT IN LOS ANGELES AT THE
2009 REEBOK NFL PLAYERS ROOKIE PREMIERE
PRESENTED BY EA SPORTS™
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE.
May 11, 2009 – LOS ANGELES – Top players from the 2009 NFL rookie class will gather in Los Angeles for the Reebok NFL PLAYERS Rookie Premiere Presented by EA SPORTS beginning Thursday, May 14. This unique event provides trading card companies Panini America, Topps and The Upper Deck Company with the opportunity to photograph rookie players for the first time in their official team jerseys.
Other official event sponsors include Reebok, EA SPORTS, Pepsi and Loews Santa Monica Beach Hotel. The photo shoots will take place at the Los Angeles Coliseum.
“This is a one-of-a-kind event that brings together some of the top rookies in the 2009 class for the first time,” NFL PLAYERS Chief Operating Officer Andrew Feffer said. “It is a unique opportunity to showcase these players to our partners as interesting and compelling personalities, features that are at the core of the NFL PLAYERS brand.”
In addition to the trading card photo shoots, rookies will visit a local hobby shop and take part in media appearances and corporate hospitality events during their four days in Los Angeles. For the fifth consecutive year, Pepsi will also be on hand to capture footage for their season-long Pepsi NFL Rookie of the Week and Rookie of the Year promotions.
In its 13th year, the Reebok NFL PLAYERS Rookie Premiere Presented by EA SPORTS is an official event of NFL PLAYERS.
Thanks again to all the people over at NFL Players, your help has been invaluable and much appreciated.
Every year, readers send me boatloads of emails asking which products are the best. I usually have to give them a short answer in the interest of not writing a novel, but most of the time it boils down to 5 products that don’t usually disappoint. Last year I talked here about my favorite cards of the year for each rookie class, so I thought I would update things a little with performance updates based on the 2008 products.
Here is my list for 2009:
1. SP Authentic Rookie Patch Auto
I put this one at number one because the design is usually the best of the year, they are usually half the price of their exquisite counterparts, they are on card autos, and they have been around longer than most of the other ones that are making an appearance on this list. Collectors value these over many of the more high end products mainly for those reasons and I agree. SPA is my favorite of the year almost all the time.
2. Exquisite Rookie Patch Auto
These cards come from the Bentley of sports card sets, and usually the design and value reflect that. I loved the RPAs from this past year, which offset the suspect year before it. These are the most valuable cards of the year, but you will pay almost twice the price of a normal card to get one. If you had started a collection of your guy, this would be the centerpiece.
3. National Treasures Rookie Patch Auto
I am only referring to the on card version of this set, as the others can get nuts with the different diecuts. I especially liked this set last year, as the tapered windows were a major, MAJOR upgrade. These may come out of the second most expensive product of the year, but they don’t live up to the cards from SPA and Exquisite. The reason that they are so high on this list, is they are the first super high end card of the year, and most consider these to be Cadillacs to the Bentley mentioned above. I would be fine with a Cadillac.
4. Topps Chrome Rookie Auto
I love Topps chrome, it’s the one Topps product that usually doesn’t disappoint. Add in the fact that they dropped the price last year, and I must have busted 5 boxes. The Chrome autos are usually just the auto'ed version of the base, a tactic I wholeheartedly approve of, and the simplistic card usually scores well with everyone. Although the design isnt fireworks in my heart this year, Im hoping it will look better in person. It usually does. Now, the photography is a whole different story altogether.
5. Leaf Limited Patch Auto
Leaf Limited was a let down last year due to the format switch. The patch autos were still great, however, and that was enough to get me to buy into a few group breaks. I think these made the Contenders from last year look like crap, but that was just me. This year, I hope they are back, and I hope they continue to be one of the more aesthetically pleasing. The one thing I am dreading is more black sharpie over the player's pic. That didn’t make sense with room below.
Honorable Mentions:
- Playoff Contenders Ticket Auto - no material, which I like, but last few years design has been ridiculously bad.
- Leaf Certified Material Mirror Blue Freshman Fabric - Loved 2007, HATED 2008, 2009 is a ?
- Ultimate Collection RC Autos - These were kind of botched in terms of the usual format, but I loved these last year.
Be sure to realize that new products come out every single year, and this year will be no exception as Donini tries to make a splash. So far, we havent gotten much in terms of plans, but you can bet that the other companies will have their guns cocked and ready to fire with their own sexy products. As long as you are good at spotting the '1 year duds' as I call them, you will be fine.
Before each year comes along, as I have said many times before, people choose their "guys" to focus on for the upcoming year. Most of the time it’s the team you cheer for, other times it’s a prospecting move based on projected production. Based on these types of practices, here are my opinions on which of the 2009 rookies will produce the best results for the people in the second category.
Matt Stafford
I am not of the group of people who says you start an RC quarterback unless you absolutely have to. The Lions may be in that place, but I just don’t see Stafford being all that productive - yet. The Lions are still a god awful team, and although Stafford has Pettigrew and Johnson to throw to now, its not going to help when you don’t have the experience. Ryan was the exception to the rule, so don’t start putting the eggs in this basket until you see some actual stats. If he does start, expect more INTs than touchdowns, especially with the state of the Lions' O-Line.
Mark Sanchez
The Jets are a much, much, MUCH better team than the Lions, but I still put the same predictions on Sanchez. He shouldn’t start right away, but even if he does, he wont have much to write home about. As of right now, I cannot name a single Jets WR without going to NFL.com first. That will hurt him. A lot.
Knowshon Moreno
If the Broncos still had Cutler, and they somehow managed to get Moreno too, he would be my guy to win rookie of the year for 2009. With Neckbeard at the helm, it’s a little different, though Brandon Marshall should attract a lot of attention. I expect Moreno to have a good year, and possibly still win the hardware, but its been all or nothing these last few years with RC RBs. As of now, his prices are ridiculous, but after they come down, if they come down, don’t hesitate to pick up some stuff if its within your means.
Aaron Curry
Curry could be the next Urlacher, but as a defensive player, his value will never be at the same level as the others. He also wont have many big cards outside of his rookie year, as most of the companies focus on offensive players after the first year. Curry has massive potential, and will most likely be the defensive rookie of the year, but the hobby wont notice him past a few dollars here and there.
Michael Crabtree
Crabtree, right now, is my top candidate for rookie of the year, though the Niners' QB situation is quite scary right now. I still think that he has the tools to be on or above Johnson's level, but without someone to throw him the ball, he wont be anywhere close. Next year when the Niners draft someone high in the first round, things may change. Oh, and just thinking about the fact that the Raiders passed him up for Heyward-Bey still makes me laugh. What idiots.
Jeremy Maclin
Brian Westbrook has been the man to stop in Philly for the last few years, but he is getting on in age and in condition. I would say Maclin should be a great target for McNabb, but he had a number of concerns with route running and other parts of his game that made him less attractive than Crabtree. I say he has an Eddie Royal type season, with some good performances, but he probably wont be the most valuable guy to keep until later in the next few years.
Percy Harvin
All I have heard over the last few weeks since the draft is that Harvin is the most explosive player in the class. Platitudes aside, I think he will be a good contributor as a 3 or even a 2, but he wont be anything special until he gets his brains behind him on the field. He seems like he has amazing talent, but just doesn’t use his head. Kind of like Randy Moss in that respect. We saw what happens when Moss applies himself. He is the best in the game. Harvin could do that, though not in the same expected production pool.
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Don’t even think he is going to be anything worth your time at first. I see Troy Williamson bust potential, but who knows, he could get lucky. I see more of DeSean Jackson's production, at Calvin Johnson's draft pick slot.
Chris Wells
Beanie could be the next Chris Johnson. He has amazing talent, is with a great team with a great line, and most importantly he played against more top talent in College than Brown or the other later backs in the draft. I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes the league for a Johnson style wild ride - that is - if he can stay healthy.
Regardless of who you pick, remember that you should be following the tree of position worth. More importantly, you shouldn’t pay more for a WR than you would for a RB, because in the long run, it will not be a good decision. Also, pick someone you may have a chance to get some stuff of after his rookie year. Usually the companies only pick people who they know are going to bring value to a set, and the fourth round QB you stocked up on now, probably wont have many cards. Anyone else ready for some football??
In the next few weeks, we should be getting our first taste of licensed NFL products with the 2009 RCs. Before you go nuts, keep a few things in mind when you are buying. Also, do not, under any circumstances, forget that post RC premiere NFL uni cards are less than 3 months away.
The first thing you need to remember is that when you buy, remember that the value of these cards will only hold as long as they did last year. That means when you buy UD draft boxes, understand that the stuff in the boxes should be sold off as quickly as possible. Same with Prestige. I can tell you right now that after the first box of Classics hit the shelf, I didn’t even let another thought into my head about these products. The cards themselves will hold more value than any unlicensed cards, but they surely will not live up to the main release products. I would be especially careful with the new Bowman offering, as there will most likely be 2-4 other Bowman products for collectors to get later in the year. If you buy Stafford and Moreno at 80-100, expect a 20-40% decrease in the price after the season starts.
The second thing you need to remember, is that some products are a much better value buy than others. That means that its better to buy Donini Elite rather than Donini prestige. Plus, with content and price about where it was last year, you can expect to pay a lot up front for both. Its better to choose the products you know will hold through the year. Here is my pre-premiere ladder:
1. Donini Elite
2. UD Draft
3. Donini Prestige
4. UD Icons
5. UD Heroes
6. Bowman DP
100. any unlicensed products
The elite, although college jersey pictures, seems to hold better than most, mainly because of the baseball equivalents being popular, and also the brand being around for a long time. The cards usually don’t look that bad, and they can be numbered quite low. The one caviat to all of this is all UD products will be on card, so you may just want to go for those. However, many have been pushed back, so they may coicide with RC premiere cards.
Lastly, don’t go prospecting with these sets unless you are going to sell RIGHT AWAY. Believe it or not, people do end up making quite a bit of money buying cases and flipping the content on these, but that doesn’t mean it will work out that way for you. I would say pick your guy(s) and get a few things. Hopefully you will choose wisely enough that the player will be great and you wont lose much, or the player is cheap to begin with and it wouldn’t matter if he sucked it up.
Each year a new class comes to the front of the hobby, usually there are one or two that are in the stratosphere for pricing, a middle group of people who are expensive but not overly expensive, and lastly, the scrubs. In 2007 I was faced with a whole year of collecting that top level of rookie with Peterson, but last year, Booty was, in terms of value, a scrub. This year, Harvin will probably be a mid level guy, taking in 20-30 bucks for autos after the first few games of the season, my wallet is thanking me right now. The question remains, what if you are "stuck" with the top guy in the class, but don’t have the cash? Here are some solutions I have had to incoporate into my repetoir.
First, Chrome is your best friend. You can usually buy a box for less than 50 bucks, and you can get some of the best looking base RC cards out there. Although the autos of your top guy will be scarce, you probably wont need to spend more than 5 bucks for an amazing base card. The good thing is that collectors still value chrome, so it isnt one of those, "lets throw base RCs in here because we need to fill the set" type of things. Also, parallels for chrome will also still be well received, so that will work in your favor. Of all the parallels in the hobby, this and SPA are the only ones I support. The icing on the cake is that chrome comes out early, so you don’t have to wait to long to have a keeper. After all, you could get lucky in your box.
Second, pick your battles. There is no reason to be a super collector these days, as there is no possible way to get everything. That doesn’t mean you cant pick your favorites, however. Choose a set or two that you know will be amazing from the previews and years past, and save your shit for that release. If you like Contenders, don’t waste your money on buying card after card after card. I know one of my favorite sets of the year is Classics because I know that it is the first Post RC Premiere product. The autos are just the base cards in a parallel, so I know it wont be a crappy RC subset that was an afterthought. Plus, from the previews, it looks pretty good this year. Because of my feelings, I wouldn’t buy boxes of Elite, UD Draft, or Prestige because I am a bigger fan of the later sets. Funny enough, Draft actually looks pretty good this year, so I may jump on that boat despite my Classics target.
Third, know your personal structure of value. If you want a nice card of your top guy, and know that you will only have one or two shots at an auto with the money you have, it may be in your favor to just pick the highest up on the value structure. Usually the top of the pyramid are always nice cards, and I hope that continues. Here is my list of cards to consider:
1. Exquisite Auto Patch
2. SPA Auto Patch
3. National Treasures Auto Patch
4. Chrome Base RC Auto
5. Topps Rookie Premiere Auto
6. SPX Auto Jers
7. Contenders Auto Ticket
8. UD Premier Auto Jers
9. Limited Auto Jers
10. Gridiron Gear Double Patch Auto (the one without the EU Football)
Of course, if you just want a cheap auto option and just want it to look nice, there are quite a few early DLP products with tons of subset autos to choose from, along with UD heroes and UD Icons. They wont be worth a ton, but they will look nice. Plus I believe that most of the UD products this year will be on card, if not all, so that will be good if you want something similar to the on card bonanza that happens with the top end of the scale.
Really, I cant stress enough how important it is to save up your cheese for something you need, as there is always something else you want. If you chip away at the 400 you need to pay for a top level SPA patch auto all year by throwing a few dollars aside each time you want to make a worthless buy, you will have your cash when you need it. However, if you buy junk for a year and then wonder why you are short on cash, I have an "I told you so" cocked and ready to fire.
Lastly, it comes down to watiting versus jumping the line. If you have a QB as your top guy, and you cant possibly wait one second, fine. Otherwise, QBs usually don’t start their first season, and when they do, they usually suck. However, if you wait until this reality sweeps over the line jumpers, you can usually chop 20-30 bucks off the 100 the autos usually cost. For a RB, people are obsessed with buying as many as possible, just in case there is some miniscule chance that the guy turns into Peterson. Look at Felix Jones, Jonathan Stewart, Darren McFadden, and Rashard Mendenhall, all of whose prices were astronomical beofre the season thanks to the idiots who don’t know any better. Then, as they started to show that they were still rookies, prices fell with reckless abandon. McFadden was tops to start the year, and ended up near the middle of the value pack at the end. Mendehall bottomed out and almost became a scrub. Don’t make this mistake for yourself.
Also, here is the way value will even out as the years pass. Even though a WR may be the top guy now, history shows that in the long run they wont be:
1. QB
2. RB
3. WR
4. LB
5. TE
6. DE/DL
7. CB
8. OL
Be smart, and for god's sake, don’t be that guy.
I thought now was as good a time as any to go over this, mainly because I have a feeling that many of you are wondering. For each draft class we all pick our people. We go over the rounds and decide on a guy based on team, college, style whatever. I also know that many of you want to see an auto before you decide. Or, as I put it, whether or not the guy passes or fails your version of the Wonderlic Autograph Test (The Autolic Test). For those of you who are not familiar, the Wonderlic is a test given to all prospects at the combine to test a number of different things about their intelligence, football intelligence, etc. The Autolic test is one performed by many collectors to determine if the autograph has merit or is subject to the Morency quotient.
This year, I think we are ridiculously lucky as long as none of the players decide to pull a press pass and sign better when there are few cards to sign, and give up when there are many. Top QB autos have been very good the last few years, and Stafford is no exception. The guy is great, he should be hailed for his detail and penmanship. Nice job. Same goes for Beanie Wells, who has a great auto for his cards. Sanchez has a loopy swoopy graph, that I don’t mind, and Moreno's isnt bad either. Harvin and Crabtree have a nice visual appeal to theirs, as well, as both should do pretty amazing when you see them on better cards.
On the other hand, Josh Freeman is a jumbled mess. If I gave you this pic and told you to pick his out, you would really have to go through a few deductions in your head before pointing the finger in his direction. Heyward-bey isnt horrible, but it is boring to me for some reason, mainly because you could practically draw a line through his sig and hit every stroke of every letter. Like I said, not horrible, just boring.
You may think that I put too much thought into this, but I will give this fact as the reason for my use of the Autolic test. I hate give up autos, and I hate weird looking autos. If the player puts no effort into it, I will not keep any of their cards. I did not buy a single Chris Johnson card last year, mainly for that exact reason.
Im sure as the card season progresses, we will see numbers added and all sorts of changes as the cards transfer from on card to sticker and back on card. However, as of now, this class' graphs pass the test with flying colors.
THE 2008 AUTOLIC TEST CAN BE FOUND HERE
(CLICK TO ENLARGE)
As we enter into the football-less wasteland of summer, the draft is what will have to sustain us until the pre-season starts in august. Overall, I think the draft was pretty fun to watch this whole time, and the first round had me glued to the TV now that teams were forced to pick a little quicker and because ESPN (no NFL Network access at my house) didnt miss any picks this year.
Im not going to comment on much more about the other stuff that happened in the 1st round, other than Al Davis being one of the biggest fucking idiots I have ever seen. He passed on Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, among other receivers for Darrius Heyward-Bey, solely based on 40 time from what I can tell. Wow, I had a Ted Ginn shiver run up my back after that.
Here is the link to v1.0.
We are under a month for the draft, and I wanted to update my original draft with the rest of my first round picks, and to reflect the recent action of the Cutler deal. People would like to think that things have changed, but I don’t really think they have all that much. Im not going to go into much more explanation outside of the top 10, so forgive me for not being a Mel Kiper wannabe.
1. Detroit Lions - QB Matt Stafford, GEORGIA
Well, despite their best interests, I think Matt Stafford is probably going to go number one. Jason Smith or Aaron Curry should be here, but they wont be. Stafford is the best QB in the draft, and the Lions are going to start anew with him. He may start from day one which is a nightmare situation, but I guess there is no alternative. Oh wait, Jay Cutler? No? Well, yeah, you are screwed then.
Prev Pick: Jason Smith, BAYLOR
2. St Louis Rams - OT Jason Smith, BAYLOR
The Rams need a guy that can take the place of Orlando Pace, and Jason smith is going to be better than Pace. He is a strong and speedy tackle, and should be a great asset to a line that has struggled to protect Bulger. It is a Tackle heavy draft, but its always nice to get the best one. These guys are starters from day one, as also said before, and the Rams will need that.
Prev Pick: OT Eugene Monroe, UVA
3. Kansas City Chiefs - LB Aaron Curry, WAKE FOREST
Man, Curry is a beast. The guy just has a ton of potential at linebacker for the Chiefs, especially on a defense that really needs the help. I originally thought Maybin would be here as the consensus pick, but the combine wasn’t as friendly to him as it could have been. Curry has as much upside as Patrick Willis, and should be quicker and and better at a key position.
Prev Pick: SAME
4. Seattle Seahawks - OT Eugene Monroe, UVA
The Seahawks need everything but a WR, and we may even see them reach for a RB or QB here, or trade down to avoid paying for one. Monroe is one of the best tackles behind Smith, and you never pass up a talent at OT, but the Seahawks are hurting everywhere. This is a toss up if Stafford goes #1.
Prev Pick: Matt Stafford, GEORGIA
5. Cleveland Browns - OLB, DE Aaron Maybin, PSU
Maybin was as high as number one on some boards, and I don’t think the Browns could pass up one of the best players in the draft, especially with their ailing defense. Maybin will be a star, and has put on some weight since the combine, so you can expect that many a big hits are in his future. He could be the next big name on defense, I would be shocked if he was a bust.
Prev Pick: SAME
6. Cincinatti Bengals - WR Michael Crabtree, TX TECH
Crabtree is the best player in the draft in my opinion, and the foot injury isnt a bad enough thing to keep him out of the top 10. If he falls this far, he wont get past Cincy, who just lost their best receiver. The guy is a ridiculous talent, and may be on the same level of potential as Calvin Johnson was. I would think this guy could be a 100 catch 15TD player down the road, and boy does this team need him.
Prev Pick: SAME
7. Oakland Raiders - WR Jeremy Maclin, MISSOURI
Wow, what a crapfest the Raiders have become. Thank you Al Davis. The Raiders have no one left in their receiving corps, and Maclin could be that big play guy they are looking for to help out Russell. God knows he needs it. They could also go OLine here, but im not sure if the Raiders draft people are that smart. Maclin is a rocket off the line with a 4.4 40, and you can expect that the upside on him will be enough for the Raiders to take him.
Prev Pick: SAME
8. Jacksonville Jaguars - OT Michael Oher, OLE MISS
Jacksonville needs some playmakers to help Garrard, but they also need to protect him. Their line has been suspect over the years and Oher may be the guy to fix it. I would have put Smith here, but the guy is a washout, much to Oher's benefit. If Maclin makes it down here, the Jags will take him, but I would expect them to definitely want to shore up problems up front as well.
Prev Pick: SAME
9. Green Bay Packers - DE Brian Orakpo, UT
The Packers may be switching to a 3-4 next year, and Orakpo should fit into that scheme from what I have seen. He has the speed and the know how to be a great OLB or DE, and you can believe that the Packers need the help with their awful rush defense from last year.
Prev Pick: SAME
10. San Fransisco 49ers - QB Mark Sanchez, USC
Holy crap, this pick could be the most up in the air for the entire draft. The Niners have a huge amount of holes and a QB that hasn’t had a healthy season since he was drafted. I didn’t think that Sanchez would go here before, but I have a feeling that after his great pro day, he will. Sanchez has the tools to be a good fit in the NFL, pro style offense, etc, but may not be an elite prospect. San Fran may wait one more year for Bradford or the others, but who knows.
Prev Pick: DE BJ Raji, BOSTON COLLEGE
11. Buffalo Bills - DE BJ Raji, BOSTON COLLEGE
12. Denver Broncos - DE Everette Brown, FLORIDA
13. Washington Redskins - OT Andre Smith, ALABAMA
14. New Orleans Saints - CB Malcom Jenkins, OSU
15. Houston Texans - LB Brian Cushing, USC
16. San Diego Chargers - DT Robert Ayers, TENNESSEE
17. New York Jets - QB Josh Freeman, KSU
18. Denver Broncos - DE Michael Johnson, GTECH
19. Tampa Bay Bucs - RB Knowshon Moreno, GEORGIA
20. Detroit Lions - CB Vontae Davis, ILL
21. Philidelphia Eagles - RB Chris Wells, OSU
22. Minnesota Vikings - WR Percy Harvin, FLORIDA
23. New England Patriots - LB Ray Maualunga, USC
24. Atlanta Falcons - DT Peria Jerry, OLE MISS
25. Miami Dolphins - TE Brandon Pettigrew OSU
26. Baltimore Ravens - DT Evander Hood, MIZZOU
27. Indianapolis Colts - LB Clay Matthews, USC
28. Philadelphia Eagles - OT Eben Britton, ARIZONA
29. New York Giants - WR Hakeem Nicks, UNC
30. Tennesee Titans - CB DJ Moore, VANDY
31. Arizona Cardinals - RB LeSean McCoy, PITT
32. Pittsburgh Steelers - C Alex Mack,
That's my first round, so far, and again, I have no experience doing this. Please take that into consideration when looking at this. The draft is pretty up in the air this year, and I hope it goes well for my team. I love watching the draft, no doubt, and maybe ill come close to what I predicted. I don’t think that the teams really have a set draft plan either, other than position needed and their board, so I assume that when the pick comes, they may have just as much of a problem as I did when I was writing this.
Im going to be focusing a lot on the draft coming up, mainly because there is nothing else. This time, I want to discuss who I think the Vikings should pick for their spot at 22. There is a lot of draft that happens before they get on the clock, and I think there is a lot of people that could be there when they pick. There are some players that I would consider to be a good investment for the team, and a bunch of others who arent. Again, let me state that I am in no way a draft guy, I just like reading about it.
Offensive Tackle - Eben Britton, Andre Smith, or a Plethora Of Others
I always think an offensive tackle is a great investment, especially when you can get top talent in the lower picks of the first round. As it stands right now, the line upgrade we would get from one of the tackles in the draft is invaluable, and would do nothing but help this team. We just lost Matt Birk, which I think was a horrible fucking decision to not throw cash at him for a few more years, and now this position is even more important.
On the other hand, I DO NOT WANT ANDRE SMITH. He may have talent and upside, but the attitude and work ethic has already been shown to be very very poor. If you cant get a good tackle here, there are plenty later in the draft.
Center - Max Unger, Alex Mack
Despite having the name of a long forgotten Nickelodeon character, Mack is a great pick to replace Matt Birk for years to come. He is just what they need, however, you don’t pick a center in the first round. Its not worth it. Center is not one of the positions that make or break a team, but it can definitely hurt if it is not addressed. Vikings need a center, but they need other things more. If they pick Mack or Unger, I wont be angry, I will just think there should have been more thought, as one of these guys should be around when the Vikings pick comes around again.
Wide Receiver - Percy Harvin, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Hakeem Nicks
Hobby wise, I hope they pick one of these guys so I have someone to collect. Team wise, I think Harvin is a great pick if he is there, but I would wait on the other players. See, when it comes to WRs, you either have a legit number 1 or you have a support guy. Sad thing is that the Vikings' receivers are all support guys. Harvin could be great, but he isnt Maclin or Crabtree who will both be #1 guys. Its very easy to be a good RB in this league, its not easy to be a good WR, especially when Sage or Tjack are throwing you the ball.
However, I think this is the best investment for the team based on Childress' current outlook. He doesn’t want a QB, he is also a complete jackass.
Quarterback - Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Pat White
I don’t think there is any question in most of the fan's minds that this is the way the Vikings should go if any of them had a brain. They should have given up their draft for Cutler or at least try to trade up and get Sanchez or Freeman. Childress refuses, but he also has proven that his mind is complete crap when it comes to building an offense. There were two things that prevented the Vikes from going further into the playoffs, first is lack of a QB, and there is no way around it. If Jackson had been Cutler, that last drive against philly would not have been an excersize in futility. You cant deny that Jackson is not an NFL level talent, and both Sanchez and Freeman will be. Good QBs don’t come in the draft often, most other positions do. Next year will be rich in QBs, but it also prevents a year on the bench, something that is needed for most QB draft picks. Normally, I would say its not too much of a problem to wait, but I don’t think the Vikings have that luxury. Without a QB drafted in this round or signed/traded for, the Vikings will be doomed to continual first round mediocrity.
This is where I want them to go. They wont. I hate being a Vikings fan during the draft. Adrian Peterson as the exception, the fans pick never gets the nod, and most of the time, the fans have been right with who they wanted.
Cornerback - Vontae Davis, among others
I do not want them to go corner, but they probably will if not OT. Corners are a dime a dozen, and I actually think this is a better position addressed via free agency, but of course, they wont agree. Vontae Davis is great, he will be similar to Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie from this past year, but honestly, there is one of them in every stage of the draft. First round corners are not as hard to find as first round WRs or QBs. I would avoid this pick as a way to improve the team. Its complete nonsense.
The only advantage to selecting someone like Davis, is you automatically upgrade your return game too. Davis would step in immediately at KR and PR, so that would be great. However, I still don’t support this type of pick.
Linebacker - James Laurinitis (sp?), Others
If they have the chance to draft a good linebacker, you can never have enough good people in this position. Although it is not a direct need, there may not be anyone else worth drafting at this spot by the time the picks come around. I wouldn’t necessarily support going this direction, but drafting best available - corner or not - may be a reality.
Personally, I think this years draft will be a lot of fun, with a lot of trades. Its going to be fast paced, and I think there will be a lot of surprises. Hopefully the Vikings can come out on top.
This year's draft is one that I have been focusing on for a long, long time. Too long. The reason is that I think this draft could be one that shapes the future for a few teams more so than a lot of the drafts turn out to do. We are coming off of a season where, for the first time, a team went 0-16, and that means that the gap between the good teams and the bad teams is growing. At least from where I stand. Also, six of the ten teams in the first picks in the draft were there last year (not counting any trades), and with this being a draft heavy on good OTs, I assume this could be a good time to get in on the ground level. Now, I am no expert, and I barely know my stuff, but I have done some homework on this, and I think its time for me to list what I believe will happen now that the free agency picture is a little more clear.
1. Detroit Lions - OT Jason Smith, BAYLOR
I think that when everything is said and done, the Lions are going to realize that this isnt the year to pick a QB with the first pick. There are a number of good people coming down the pipeline next year, and this will give them a chance to anchor the line that gave up all those sacks last year. Plus, with another pick at #20, Josh Freeman or Mark Sanchez may be there to build the team around for a lot cheaper. Smith can start from day one, and should be a great player.
2. St Louis Rams - OT Eugene Monroe, UVA
The Rams need a guy that can take the place of Orlando Pace, and Eugene Monroe is that guy. He is a big dude, and may be the better of the two tackles that have emerged at the top of the list. As I said before, this is a tackle heavy draft, and Monroe is definitely one of the guys I would expect to have a very good career. These guys are starters from day one, as also said before, and the Rams will need that.
3. Kansas City Chiefs - LB Aaron Curry, WAKE FOREST
Man, Curry is a beast. The guy just has a ton of potential at linebacker for the Chiefs, especially on a defense that really needs the help. I originally thought Maybin would be here as the consensus pick, but the combine wasn’t as friendly to him as it could have been. Curry has as much upside as Patrick Willis, and should be quicker and and better at a key position.
4. Seattle Seahawks - QB Matthew Stafford, GEORGIA
We all know about Matt v2.0, he is still considered to be the consensus number 1 pick, but I see him dropping a bit now as things move forward. We can see that Hasslebeck is getting older and hasn’t necessarily produced the way the league demands as of late. Without Alexander in the backfield, the QB position becomes even more important than it already is. Too bad there isnt a good enough RB to take here, because the Seahawks could use one of them too. Now that Housh is the new seattle man, I think they want someone who will get him the ball.
5. Cleveland Browns - OLB, DE Aaron Maybin, PSU
Maybin was as high as number one on some boards, and I don’t think the Browns could pass up one of the best players in the draft, especially with their ailing defense. Maybin will be a star, and has put on some weight since the combine, so you can expect that many a big hits are in his future. He could be the next big name on defense, I would be shocked if he was a bust.
6. Cincinatti Bengals - WR Michael Crabtree, TX TECH
Crabtree is the best player in the draft in my opinion, and the foot injury isnt a bad enough thing to keep him out of the top 10. If he falls this far, he wont get past Cincy, who just lost their best receiver. The guy is a ridiculous talent, and may be on the same level of potential as Calvin Johnson was. I would think this guy could be a 100 catch 15TD player down the road, and boy does this team need him.
7. Oakland Raiders - WR Jeremy Maclin, MISSOURI
Wow, what a crapfest the Raiders have become. Thank you Al Davis. The Raiders have no one left in their receiving corps, and Maclin could be that big play guy they are looking for to help out Russell. God knows he needs it. They could also go OLine here, but im not sure if the Raiders draft people are that smart. Maclin is a rocket off the line with a 4.4 40, and you can expect that the upside on him will be enough for the Raiders to take him.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars - OT Michael Oher, OLE MISS
Jacksonville needs some playmakers to help Garrard, but they also need to protect him. Their line has been suspect over the years and Oher may be the guy to fix it. I would have put Smith here, but the guy is a washout, much to Oher's benefit. If Maclin makes it down here, the Jags will take him, but I would expect them to definitely want to shore up problems up front as well.
9. Green Bay Packers - DE Brian Orakpo, UT
The Packers may be switching to a 3-4 next year, and Orakpo should fit into that scheme from what I have seen. He has the speed and the know how to be a great OLB or DE, and you can believe that the Packers need the help with their awful rush defense from last year.
10. San Fransisco 49ers - DE BJ Raji, BC
Holy crap, this pick could be the most up in the air for the entire draft. The Niners have a huge amount of holes and a QB that hasn’t had a healthy season since he was drafted. I could say Sanchez would go here, but they may just say fuck it and go for the offensive line. They could use a DE as well, so Raji would make sense along with Everette Brown. Raji is a good player that can go inside at DT as well, so versatility could be his best asset.
That’s my picks for right now, I may do this again as the pro days shape up. Feel free to offer your ideas, but realize that I am not an expert on this stuff in any way. I really hope that things work out for these top picks because if they go as planned, the Vikings could end up with someone much better than I expected. Either way, April is a long time away, and things change daily with this. All I can say is that I am pumped.
