Ghosts of Collecting Future

Sometimes you just know things are not going to turn out well. When the economy hit the fan, I knew that the card industry was in trouble. Some industries have the clout to power through it, like video games or porn, but card collecting doesn’t seem like enough of a money maker to continue at its pace before the drop. Im also not convinced it was all the fault of the economy, as it seems as though the industry was getting way too far ahead of itself with what it was delivering. Players are now wanting more money than ever for their participation, and I dont think many people thought about what that would do when the going got tough.

That isnt the only large problem in our midst, however, as the mindset of the consumer may have adjusted to prices TOO much to give back enough to get it where it was before. What I mean is this. As of now, singles are at their lowest prices ever, and there is much to be had for the collector that still has disposable income. I mean, I just got a Peterson auto for like 50 bucks, and it wasn’t a bad one. Considering that I had 50 bucks in ad revenue from the site, this was a freebie that I couldn’t pass up. The scary thing is, what happens when the economy comes back around? Do we go back to the before prices or will people think, "Man, I saw this card go for fifty bucks a few months ago, I am not going to pay 150 for it right now." Even though the pre-drop value may have been at 150 bucks, and would be able to sustain that with a now returned economy, the completed auction page may prevent it from going back to normal.

Of course, super high end cards should be back to normal, and I am not talking about cards that are $250-1000, I am talking higher. Mainly the ones that really never drop in value, but just fluctuate a little here and there. You know, the Jordan RCs, the Mantle cards and other vintage, and a lot of the cards that people will ALWAYS want. But, BUT, does a rise in super high end translate to a snap back for cards below that? Im not really sure, and I am beginning to think that if one of the big three dies out, Upper Deck being the front runner for some reason, they wont snap back. Then, when you have stocked up on cards that you knew to be WAY below their pre-drop values, where does it leave you? Not in a good place, right?

Now, I am not saying to avoid pulling the trigger on those deals out there, because some of them are just too good to pass up. However, before you go nuts, you might want to think about your own mindset once things go back to normal. Would you be willing to shell out twice what you are paying for the card at this moment once things change in your discretionary funds? Hell, for the first time in decades, Americans are saving money for fear of what is to come. Who's to say that they wont continue to do so? If this type of recession happened once, what's saying it wont happen again? All of these things will contribute to the value of your collection, so make sure to keep your head on a swivel while you are buying, IF you are buying.

BREAKING NEWS: Upper Deck Closes Facility?

I got this email from an "Anonymous Upper Deck Employee" today, and Im not quite sure what to make of it. It seems like there may be some layoffs and/or closings, and there may also be problems in getting the company's workload distributed. I have a feeling that this particular person is angry that they have to be a part of the current atmosphere, and is sending this email to show their disappointment. Maybe I am reading too much into this, I have no idea. Here is what I received:

Hey Gellman,

Thought you might like to hear about this news for your blog:

February 17, 2009

To All U.S. Upper Deck employees:

As all of you are aware, the weakening economy and rising costs have produced sharp decreases in consumer spending, including for our products. We, therefore, must implement additional cost reduction measures in order to maintain our financial stability.

The following cost reduction initiatives will be implemented:

The Company will close the Nevada facility no later than September 30, 2009 and will relocate certain functions to Carlsbad. During the next several weeks the Company will finalize departmental transition plans. Some departments will be relocated prior to the facility closure. [...]

[...]
The decision to make cost reductions that directly affect our employees is a very difficult one. We value the commitment and hard work that each of you have dedicated to building this company; however, we believe that these cost reductions are crucial to our overall financial stability.
[...]

Thank you for your continued commitment and hard work.

Sincerely,
Richard McWilliam


It was announced yesterday afternoon. The memo has more to say about future initiatives; interesting yet weird & disapointing.

so if you thought things were bad before, you haven't seen anything yet! Good luck getting anything done while things are being transfered from one state to another and nobody cares in either state. The Nevada guys know they will be laid off and Carlsbad is already overworked and can't handle those new duties on top of it.

Gosh, and none of the 43 VPs are getting laid off, what a surprise! In Vegas, you had customer service, quality assurance, accounting, sales support and warehousing (for everything but cards). Lots of good people going for corporate greed and profit margin.

Sad day

Thank you for safeguarding my anonymity.

---------------------

I think this could be a sign of what may be to come, I know I am not surprised. I emailed Gregg for comment, I am sure I will be forced to take this down pretty soon, so be advised.

Still, pretty interesting, and hopefully the employees involved will have luck in finding a new position. Layoffs are always very tough to deal with, and I feel for the people who are affected. Regardless of your feelings for UD, people losing jobs is never something to celebrate.