Upper Deck Redemption Experiment

I broke down and did it. Im sorry. I bought a redemption for a Percy Harvin Ultimate Rookie Signatures cheap on eBay, despite my better judgement that the card may never be produced. Although April 19th is far off, and I have received confirmation that all rumors of players not signing out of protest are false, I still had some issues spending a lot of money on a redemption.

Regardless of my fears, I decided to take a calculated risk and try it out. I will keep you all posted on my results as the card should be awesome, if I get it.

If you remember back a few months, I did a post on all of my redemption experiences with the big three and Upper Deck had the best results, much to the surprise of many. I have never waited very long on a card that I ended up with, and the one replacement I have had was taken care of wonderfully.

Hopefully this one will turn out great.

Keep vs. Sell In the Wake of the Upper Deck Lawsuit

Selling upon release is always better idea with any box pulls, if not only because of the 20% increase in price with all of the people looking to buy a new product. Its even more important with sets like Ultimate Collection baseball and SP Authentic because of recent revelations of the MLBP Lawsuit against Upper Deck. This holds doubly true for redemptions, which may not ever be fufilled if MLBP wins their case.

All around the boards lately, people have been asking whether to hold or sell with certain cards, and my response has always been the same. If you don’t like the player and/or it’s a redemption you have to sell now. For SPA, the NFL off season lull is less than a month away, and once that initial 20% bump wears off, you are going to be stuck with selling the card under value, or waiting for next season to start ramping up. On top of that, you are also going to deal with the possible bankruptcy of the company producing the cards, meaning an even larger loss in value. For Ultimate Collection, the faking threshold is coming up fast, and at that point people start questioning everything. When people question authenticity, card prices drop, and you have missed out on selling at a huge premium because of the massive amount of product hype.

For redemptions, there are two sides to the story. First, if you have a redemption for one of the SPA rookie auto patches, there is a chance the card could be in your hands before April 19th. The problem is, there have have been rumors floating around that the people who didn’t sign, didn’t because they werent paid or objected to doing so. That is bad for business and it means that you may be left out in the cold when the reaper comes for UD brass. Second if it’s a redemption for an Ultimate baseball vet/star auto or a dual out of SPA, you need to make a decision quick. There is always a chance that people who have signed before will get their cards done more quickly than a rookie, but again, its just over 2 months until April 19th.

Also, if you are thinking of buying any redemptions, don’t. Simple as that. Its too big of a risk if you are going to redeem, and if you think that you will be one of the lucky ones, you probably wont be. Redemptions factor in two different sides of things, the players and the producers, and this time you don’t have the luxury of waiting on the players. Funny enough, I will say that if April 19th comes, and the decision is made IN Upper Deck's favor, that may be the best time to buy and sell your target redemptions.

When it comes to the settlement of the Upper Deck Lawsuit brought by MLBP, there are many more people that stand to lose than stand to win. I have said on in many recent posts that losing a part of the market is never a good thing for anyone, especially when it will affect a big three company like Upper Deck. In this case, it will have an impact on existing products and thousands of people who are banking on their cards, which may be worse than we can even fathom right now. Either way, now is the time to get your head above the fray, especially in your ability to avoid risks that you have control over.

How Does Something Like This Happen?

Percy Harvin DOES have live autos in SPA, and I am wondering how you get some autos but not all autos into packs. Im also beginning to wonder how some of the auto patches are live, when others for the same player are redemptions. Any one have any ideas?

How Many Redemptions Are On The 2009 SP Authentic List?

There was a lot of speculation that SP Authentic would be filled with redemptions due to a number of reasons, and so far that is a half truth. There are a few big names on the redemption list, but no more than were in National Treasures. Because the redemption lists are so similar, I believe its more of a player issue than anything.

As of now, here is who is on the list:

Percy Harvin

Hakeem Nicks

Beanie Wells

Kenny Britt

Shonn Greene (Some Are Live)
Nate Davis
Mike Thomas

Also, like Shonn Greene, some of the rookies may have live RAPs along with redemptions, so this remains to be seen. Personally, I wouldnt even bother taking a chance on these until you see the live versions. Many of them will take a long time due to expectant money troubles and pending lawsuits against UD, so stick to what you actully see.

Lastly, it looks like UD stopped all auctions that were started yesterday, and limited people on the blowout forum from listing their breaks. Although I had my images up all day, many were forced to have them taken down. I cant understand why UD wanted to do this, as it solves absolutely nothing. When you have spent the last few weeks building a hatred among collectors, why would anyone at UD think that was a good idea? It just doesnt make sense.

Either way, happy hunting, I have already scored one of my main targets and I hope you land some of yours.

SPA is Live!

We have our first rookie patch autos popping up as well as the first Super Patch Auto. Both look good, but there have been early reports of many redemptions in the live boxes. That is NOT good. Im still holding my breath, but im guessing this is the nature of the beast.

The Redemption Game - How Do You Play?

Over the last few years, redemptions have become an inevitablity, seemingly for every product with few exceptions. The problem I want to address has nothing to do with the time frame it takes to redeem them, or the fact that they have to be replaced if not produced. I want to look at the prospects of redeeming one, and what that could mean for your initial investment.

No longer are redemptions solely for cards that have little meaning, and if Panini is any indicator, some of the best players have acutally been more redemptions than not. The issue with this is that a player's signature, especially on a tiny sticker, can be both great or horrible, and there is nothing you can do to choose which you get. When you buy a redemption or pull one out of a pack, the card usually has not been produced, and you wont see it until it shows up at your door. This means you could easily end up with a shitty autograph from the run, and your options to change that become slim to none. Players like Adrian Peterson, who are known for their erratic signatures, have brought this issue to the forefront of many people who invest in the redemptions before the cards go live. You could get a card that looks great, has a clear signature with no run-offs, or you could get a card where the auto is halfway off the sticker, bubbly on the card, or just poor quality. You pay the same for the redemption either way, so what is the solution?

Well, this is simple and complicated at the same time, as stupid as that sounds. The practical thing would be to wait for the cards to go live and pick your poison, however that may mean two things. First, the price for a live card will be more (especially when they first hit), and secondly, it may be too rare to wait for again. At this point, paying 20% less for a redemption may be worth your while, unless the card is known to have autograph problems like the ones out of 2009 Contenders. At that point you HAVE to wait because there is no reason to risk it, knowing your card has a good chance of coming out like a bubbly mess.

The second issue is the pieces of memorabilia, as it is always a chance that you could end up with a bad swatch instead of a good one. A great example of this double whammy is 2009 Limited, where the patch cards of 80% of the top players were redemptions. A three color is always going to get you more money than a one color, and when you factor in that a player like Percy Harvin has a signature that varies from okay to horrible, it may be better to wait. I took the chance and ended up with a great card, but there are just as many people out there who should have waited to choose.

You also have to make sure that you can wait before sinking your money into a card that isnt (and may never end up in) your hands. I have had to wait anywhere from a week to 12 months for a redemption, and I am the least patient person on the planet. During that timeframe, you also run the risk of the card losing value due to performance or other things, so that is also an argument for waiting. Then again, if the card is already pretty cheap, this may not matter.

Overall, there is no clear cut answer as to whether it is better to wait or jump. I have jumped more times than not, and have had good results, however, it easily could have gone the other way. I guess it depends on how much money you are willing to part with, as well as how much patience you have stored up.

Exquisite Black And Gold Redemptions Are Coming...

Thanks to Jeff over at New Card Smell, and Upper Deck's facebook page, we have finally gotten confirmation that the cards are starting to come through. These have taken ABSOLUTELY forever, but the result seems to be pretty good. My only complaint is the "Black and Gold" lettering looking the way it does, but other than that, they are cool. Per UD these should start coming around the holidays, but we all know that predictions are just that.

Here are some pics:

A Look At Redemptions

I have never been scared by a redemption, let me say that right from the start. I don’t know why, but I never really had too much of a problem with my patience in waiting for a card I wanted. However, I know for a lot of people that isnt the case, and most have very ill feelings towards the companies they patronize who have redemption problems.

Back in the early part of this decade, Upper Deck became notorious for failed attempts at getting their redemptions out in a timely fashion. Months would pass between updates, sometimes years, and a good portion of the time, you would get stuck with replacements. Although they have improved dramatically from those days, sometimes a dramatic improvement from crap is just a bridge to poor. Upper Deck has made strides in the way redemptions are handled, being the first to institute an online redemption program. This made a lot of people optimistic about the times they feared their submissions were being lost in the mail, but most of the time it caused as many problems as it solved.

Other companies have latched on to the online redemption program, most recently Panini, followed slowly, as always, by Topps. These programs have brought about sweeping changes in the ways old redemptions are handled as well as brought newfound confidence to the floundering redemption programs of each company.

Recently, I decided to take another chance on a redemption, this time with Panini for the first time. I have had huge amounts of success with Upper Deck, getting all of my Adrian Peterson cards filled in a very short time, so I thought it was worth a shot on a Percy Harvin that I liked. I redeemed the card about a month ago, hoping to get a nice auto and nice patch on the Limited Phenoms card I thought was the best of the year so far from Panini. Lucky for me, it came yesterday, and I am very pleased with the results (pic below).

This led me to go through a discussion of the different pros and cons of each, under the auspices that I could maybe inform a few of you about everything I have experienced.

Upper Deck

Cards Redeemed: Adrian Peterson National Chicle Auto, Adrian Peterson Exquisite Auto, Adrian Peterson Sunday Stars Signatures, Sidney Rice SPA RPA, Adrian Peterson SPA SP Authentics, Joe Mauer SPA By The Letter Auto

My Experiences: As you can see, I have had a lot of redemptions that I have bought through eBay. I did not pull any of these cards in packs, and I knew there would be a wait on some of them. When I first was introduced to the Upper Deck Redemption system, I was pretty impressed. Create your account, enter the code, see the card and updates right there on the screen. For the Mauer, a card that was the first redemption I worked with, I didn’t understand that it would take so ridiculously long. It took about seven months, only because I redeemed it at the beginning of the season, and we know that players have a tough time signing during the season. The problem was not that it took so long, but because I had no clue. That was the only time I had a problem. The other cards got to me in less than a month, sometimes in less than a week if they were already in stock. None of the cards were damaged, though it was annoying to have to trek to the fedex office to get the signature on the package.

Others Experiences: Im sure you have heard of the stories. The horrors, the horrors! Redemptions taking years upon years, awful replacements, everything that one could imagine. The worst I have heard was someone getting a five dollar card for a card that sold for over 150 due to equal book value or some crap like that. Upper Deck has said to me that they have switched to using what cards sell for in addition to the guide, as well as collector requests and rarity. It doesn’t always work out, but I have seen people get Flacco RPAs from SPA as well as a Chris Johnson for a card that didn’t sell for much. I guess it works both ways. In all reality, I think the horror stories create very vocal people, while the success stories do not. However, I do think that Upper Deck did earn their stigma pretty early on, and much of it is still sticking, rightfully so in some cases.

Topps

Cards Redeemed: Harry Douglas Bowman Chrome Auto

My Experiences: I loved when Topps switched to online, and decided to try out the Douglas as a test. At most I was losing ten bucks, so I didn’t really think of it as too much of a risk. Again, a very user friendly site, and the design of the cards you pull is very helpful with name in big bold letters. You don’t need a magnifying glass or a checklist, which is clutch. As for the card itself, it came in about four months, and didn’t have any big problems. Again, I was pissed that a guy at the rookie premiere had to have a redemption, but at least I got the card I redeemed, even though others have had a lot of issues.

Others Experiences: I have stood by the fact that you shouldn’t spend any significant money on any Topps redemption because there is a good chance that any replacement you get will be total and utter fucking poop. I have heard of people getting low end packs as replacements for a redemption, and that just isnt right. I have also seen that Topps' track record on filling redemptions, despite using all stickers, is quite a bit lower than I expected, with some major cards going unfufilled. Having unfufilled redemptions is just as much a player problem as a company problem, but any replacement problems are all on their shoulders. Topps is notorious for that, no doubt. One addition recently has been redemption updates on Twitter, and that is beyond awesome. I applaud Topps for that part of this whole thing.

Panini

Cards Redeemed: Adrian Peterson Limited RPA, Percy Harvin Limited RPA, Shawn Nelson Base Auto

My Experiences: I wont talk much about the Peterson RPA, because it was a write in before the new online system was started, and it turned out pretty well. The Harvin and the Nelson are newer ones. Starting with the actual redemption cards themselves, they could be the most annoying things in history. You always will need a checklist, and that can be problematic if you are opening them in a shop from loose packs, when they threw the sheet away. I don’t understand why they cant print the names of the players on the cards like everyone else, just seems completely useless. The site itself is a little more complicated than the others, especially if you have multiples going at once. I had two at once, and I couldn’t tell which was which without clicking through a few menus. Also, they call everything a "request" so your files may not be redemptions, as damage and missing card replacements are filed under "open requests" as well. The Nelson hasn’t come yet, but the Harvin showed up yesterday as I explained above, packaged nicely. It came via USPS which may cause more problems if there was damage. With Fedex like UD uses, there is much more accountability for damage because of national policies, which is very helpful. USPS is practically nothing in terms of those types of policies. There was not even insurance on the card.

Others Experiences: Other people have had generally normal experiences with both good and bad replacements and fufillment stuff. Since Panini is pretty much all stickers as well, they have a luxury that on card stuff doesn’t have, however, that doesn’t always mean you get what you paid for. There were a lot of problems last year with Chris Johnson's Contenders cards, with some people getting shafted. However, most of them were able to work it out with customer service, which is a good sign. I wonder what happened for those collectors who didn’t know what to do, though. Panini is generally regarded to have a mid range wait time, with some being quick and others taking forever, but their strength is in expired cards. They are notorious for keeping back stock of expired cards, and will usually fufill something, even if the card is years old.

I don’t really think that there is a clear cut best company here, as each has their strengths. I would just advise you to ask people before purchasing redemptions, especially old ones, and really see if past ones have been fufilled for that player. If there is documented success, it may be worth a chance to try with one. Otherwise, stick to the live cards, as a bird in hand is much better than two in the bush.

UD Tries To Make Good On Favre Icons Redemption Foul

Early in 2008's card year, Upper Deck released their version of Brett Favre's first Jets card. For 2008 Icons, they inserted redemptions for the non-autoed "Broadway Brett" letters that have made Icons such a popular product over the last two years. Since the release, UD has had major problems getting the cards built and sent out, so its been a long wait for the collectors that redeemed them.

To help make up for their late return, UD created two limited edition Brett Favre Vikings cards that will be included with each Letter redemption that are on the verge of being shipped out.

I think its too little too late with these, as the cards shouldnt have taken as long as they have. Regardless, people arent walking away empty handed.

Click to enlarge:

The Trouble With Redemptions And Player Collecting

Over the last two years, Peterson has become a 100% redemption player due to his unwillingness to adhere to the normal signing schedule that card companies require. There will always be stickers that can be reused from as far back as the offseason from 2007, but, for the true on card sweetness, its a waiting game for the new shit. This leads to a problem when you see a card that you know is going to be ridiculously amazing, but you know that its going to be six months before the package shows up at your door.

Such is my dilemma, and I know a lot of you out there have similarly experienced the months that are necessary to get a card you have wanted. The question remains as to whether or not the wait is worth the end result. I say yes and no, but it also has a lot to do with your connection to the card and your connection to the player.

For a player collector, sometimes redemptions are a necessary evil, especially if you are waiting on some of the cards that will be the best of the year. Since my favorite products are always SPA and Exquisite, I have to come to terms with the fact that I will have to wait for Peterson to sign his stuff. Since UD cant produce these cards far enough ahead of time, the cards need to be redemptions - I get that. But do I risk my money under the auspices that at any time he can just decide not to sign any more?

I have risked it before, at least twice, once with great results, once with a replacement outcome. This time, I think I may risk it again and buy a card out of Philadelphia that should be one of the best auto cards until SPA in January. Thats the impatience in me, despite the fact that the card probably wont be signed until SPA actually hits shelves. Thats me, though, and I am positive that the card is something I need to buy. Yet, if I had pulled it out of a pack of a player I didnt collect, it would be on ebay faster than you could say boo.

The problem is, that redemptions are practically only there for the player collectors around to begin with. People who pull the redemptions rarely ever hold them if they dont collect the player in some way, and I believe that is why so many of them end up on eBay. Now that its also very easy to do it online instead of sending them in, its even easier to just throw it up there as an incentive for the people out there that like it. Hell, you dont even need to ship the card most of the time.

Call me a junkie for hard signed cards now that I am spoiled enough by UD's great commitment to those sets, but I wonder if others out there are willing to take the same chance on some of these as I am. I realize that most collectors blame UD and their replacements for the redemption dilemma, but there have to be other addicts out there like me looking for their next fix. Otherwise the market for these redemptions wouldnt be what it is.

So Far, This Is Looking Pretty Good

A few days ago, I took a huge risk on a Peterson auto redemption from Exquisite. The good thing was that I had seen a number of ADs up on ebay, the bad thing was that Exquisite wasnt part of that. It was a new set, so it was kind of expected, but I was still quite weary of what may happen.  

Today, to my surprise, I found this under my redemptions on the UD site:

Im glad to see that not everything has been lost on UD customers. With this preliminary info, at least we know that the wheels are still turning somewhere, though customer service has been widely reported as greatly reduced. 

So far, things are looking pretty good, ill keep you up to date.

I Took A Huge Risk Today

Oh man, I am shaking about this. Here is what happened:

I saw that AD's redemptions from UD products started showing up on eBay. The problem was that the cards I wanted were not listed at a reasonable price, and I got really ancy about buying up an Exquisite redemption before some of the fufilled cards got through to the bay and jacked up the price on the ones that hadn't been redeemed. I had the money from the junk auction, and I started looking around the checklist on UD's exquisite site. I thought that the gold /10 was the best picture, and the gold marker would be awesome (even if the new sig isnt even close to the old one). Regardless, the issue remained: did he only sign a few cards, or did he sign them all? Will I get fucked again? I hope not. Remember, I already had to give up on an SPA redemption from last year, and that didnt necessarily work out in my favor with the LeBron Sweet Shot I got as a replacement.

So, despite my best intentions, I took a risk. I decided it was worth the shot, and I will use it as a testimonial for the readers. Rather than spending 200 on a box and getting crap, I will put some of that money towards the card I want. I figured at least I would end up with something worth my time.

I emailed Gregg and asked what had happened with the signing, as it seemed beofre like UD was just about done with waiting on AD to sign. He has yet to respond. Hopefully I will get positive results in a rough time for UD.  If not, you guys will hear about it.

Gregg, the ball is in your court now.

There Is A Lesson To Be Learned Here

I just got an email from reader Phil, who was telling me about his 100 dollar Topps redemption that was replaced with a few packs of a low end product and an auto that hasnt been worth anything since 2005. Rather than going into the awful situation that Topps presents with their redemption replacements, and rather than going into my own redemption replacement predicament with UD, I think there is a lesson to be learned for all.

First off, never, ever, ever, ever buy a Topps redemption. I think I have heard of maybe 1 that has actually been filled correctly. Of all the companies that produce redemptions, and pretty much all companies in general, Topps is...umm... topping the list of people I dont want to deal with. See, the difference between Topps' more sporatic redemptions and UD's all over the place redemptions is that UD fills them MOST of the time. When UD doesnt fill their redemptions, I have heard great stories and awful stories, whereas with Topps, I have only heard bad and worse.

Secondly, if you pull a redemption of any non-PC player, sell the shit like its hot. Its not worth the wait, or going through "the program" if you dont need the card, and will sell eventually anyways. Let the other guy deal with the problem while you get 25 dollars less on eBay for a 300 dollar card. Really is any minimal percentage loss going to make or break you? No, you arent homeless. Go buy something you actually want and can see with your own eyes.

Lastly, dont trade non-redemptions for redemptions. I see people do it ALL THE FUCKING TIME. A bird in hand is worth two in the bush. I dont care if it is some rare topps bowman chrome parallel auto. Its not worth your card unless the actual redemption card itself - not the card you are redeeming for - is going into your PC. Dont waste your assets on crap that will never materialize.

Just for reference, here are the best and worst companies for redemptions:

1. UD - online redemptions, soon to be online replacement program, great, good and bad replacement stories. Could take a while for your card though.
2. DLP - online redemptions, usually filled, not many replacement stories heard, but the ones I have are good.
3. Topps - online redemptions, nominally filled, awful, awful replacement stories heard, takes a long ass time.

Question: Please Help

I am trying the Redemption Replacement Program through Upper Deck for a redemption that I dont want to wait another year for. Has anyone used this option for unfufilled cards before? Is Upper Deck easy to work with? The redemption is worth around 250 dollars on the open market, so I am worried that I will get shafted. Does anyone have any stories to share?

Thanks!

2008 Donruss Classics Redemption Info

Just so everyone knows, if you pull a redemption from classics this year, it will not expire yesterday as stated on the card. Instead, it will expire, as expected in January 2010. So, if you want that Steve Slaton or Sedrick Ellis Auto, go ahead.

Just an FYI

Box Break: 2007 Leaf Limited FB

I came home today to find a little present on my doorstep from a guy I did some freelance work for. That's always a nice feeling, especially when I found out he had sent a box of Leaf Limited for me!

Anyways, here are the goods:



I was begging, as you see in the YouTube video of the break, that I wouldnt pull one of these pieces of crap. Well I did, and it was a redemption no less. Being that it is Tank Tyler, I would much rather have a HOF jersey or patch instead. So far, not so good.



Next I pulled a Jack Youngblood jersey card numbered to 50 that wasnt too bad. The problem is that it scans like a bitch. So, its not really a blank card - thats my scanner. If I was going to get a jersey of someone, I would have liked a Viking, but hey, he's a HOFer so thats cool.



Well...no RC Patch Auto. But, at least its a HOFer with a really nice auto. I know there are some Redskins guys out there so maybe they would trade for a Cris Carter auto or something. Drop me an email if you are interested. Despite his team, this card is a really well put together card. I love the Monikers set this year and these types stand out in the long run. Ive seen the Montana and the Favre and they are both some of the nicest for the year. These remind me why Limited was my favorite Mid End product this year.

I also pulled an Eric Weddle base RC out of 20 and a David Irons out of 399, so over all it kind of went as expected. Its a free box so I wont complain, but it would have been nice if my scrub was at least in my hands. Tsk, tsk DLP.

OVERALL GRADE: B-
LOOKING FOR IN TRADE: Cris Carter, Adrian Peterson, Fran Tarkenton, Sidney Rice