Beware the Hype Demon

If you havent heard about Strasburg, you have probably been marooned in the Swiss Alps with no internet or have been held against your will in a bunker somewhere. Im not going to discuss the merits of his injury, but I do want to touch on how this lesson factors into the buying habits of the general collecting public. See, the hype machine has become a ridiculous tornado of cash surrounding a few different people in the hobby over the last few years, and so far, none of them have lived up to the billing. Starting with Reggie Bush, moving to Joba Chamberlain, and ending with Strasburg, its funny how things have worked out. Now, with Tim Tebow beginning to make an enormous hobby impact in Football, I am wondering if people will ever learn.

Lets travel back in time to 2006, speed up to 88 mph and we are off. The Texans have the first in the NFL draft pick after a pretty terrible 2005 campaign, and Reggie Bush, the franchise back of the future is sitting there for them to build their team. He has had a monster career at USC and many of the scouts are saying he could be the next Barry Sanders. No matter that he has little size to carry the ball with that frequency, and his field awareness is oft criticized, the fans don’t care. They want Reggie. In a shocking twist, the Texans pass, and go with Mario Williams, leaving Bush to fall right into the lap of the Saints. His cards start selling at crazy astronomical prices, and his Exquisite patch auto climbs above $2,000 selling on eBay when the product is released. His draft counterparts Vince Young and Matt Leinart start to ride on his coattails even, with their cards selling for crazy money as well. Now, lets jump back in the Delorian and see what's up. Bush has done little to nothing since his rookie season, and was actually in danger of being cut before this season. The Saints did win their first title, but it had NOTHING to do with the talents of Reggie Bush. In fact, if not for Adrian Peterson's fumble-itis, his fumble on a punt return in the first half of the NFC championship may have stopped them short altogether. His cards still generate more than the normal run of the mill back, but they are never going to be back where they were in 2006.

Similarly, Joba Chamberlain had copius amounts of hype surrounding his arrival in the Yankees' farm system. His cards were selling for amounts that would make a Sox fan cry, and many people thought he was going to be the next Roger Clemens. When the 2007 Bowman products hit shelves, people clamored to get a hold of his autographed rookie. So much so that his 2007 Chrome superfractor sold for close to $10,000. I was literally in shock that someone would pay that much for a guy destined to be a middle reliever or a middle of the rotation starter, but none-the-less, people were freaking out. It had a lot to do with where he was playing, and I always said that if his name was Jerry and he played in Pittsburgh, no one would care about his future. In 2010, he has settled into a setup role with the Yankees, but is no where near where he was back in 2007. He has already had a few shots as a starter with the team, only to be put back into the bullpen when success was limited. Cards that were selling above $300 in 2007 are now under 50 bucks, and there is even a fabled BGS 10 on eBay with no bids at under $150.

These players were far down the page in a long list of failed top prospects, but Strasburg is on a level all his own. Although his career is far from over, its probable that he is not going to get to the spot he was expected to be come the middle of his run. Fireballers like Strasburg have a propensity to burn out, even to the point where teams are starting to go in a different direction if they have the option. However, that is not even half of the craziness surrounding his upcoming surgery. The main batch of crazy here was the prices people were paying for his cards, despite the fact that a best case scenario in Tim Lincecum was valued far below the investment they were making. Even if Stras had come to be what Lincecum is now, the prices were ten stories above the value ceiling. That didn’t stop people from paying thousands for his stuff, and now I am the one who is among the many saying "I told you so." Even worse, those bowman autos that were once climbing above $600 dollars are now unable to sell at even half of that price.

Not stopping there, I can now say that buying Strasburg stuff far exceeds the terrible investment anyone ever spent on guys like Bush and Chamberlain, mainly because the investment people had made had no chance of ever panning out. If you were a fan, that’s fine, spend what you want, but that’s not the way many collectors approached Strasburg "prospecting." Even at the price tag he was selling for, people were lining up to pay top dollar just in case he became the next "better than" Tim Lincecum. Instead, they ended up with a season and a half, plus rust shaking time of sitting on cards that will probably never make it back to where they paid.

Like Strasburg, Tebow is creating a hype storm in football that rivals a lot of what guys like Matt Leinart brought in 2006. Despite a lack of an NFL level skill set, and a team with that has barely any weapons at all, people are paying huge prices for cards that don’t even feature game worn swatches. Tebow has managed two TDs in the pre-season, more than any of the other QBs drafted this year, but both were "well, but" touchdowns that have a line after the initial explanation. The first TD happened during garbage time against the third stringers, and the second TD was a three yard pass against the scrubs, only after a long run from another player. These "successes" also don’t take into consideration that his terrible throwing motion, arm and accuracy led to an interception by a player who probably will only play special teams, among other problems. If he had these types of problems against the backups, what happens when guys like Darrelle Revis have a shot at his throws on a curl route to Eddie Royal?

Many people don’t understand why I hate on Tebow as much as I do, and I will say that some of it comes from the hype machine itself. I cheer against the sand that is kicked up around guys that have potential but nothing to show for it yet, and it’s the same reason I never buy into their cards. I almost always root against the hype machine, mainly because so much of the hype stands against normal reasoning. If the hype machine actually put out what we put in, maybe my tune would change, but for right now, the results are pretty much a landslide in the opposite direction. Because America is such a please me now society, no one is willing to wait on buying cards of a guy who is being helped by his hype. Even though prices will almost surely decline rapidly once production levels out to normal expectations, no one cares. Card collectors NEVER learn their lesson, and I have a feeling that they wont stop creating hobby titans like Strasburg and company.

Does this mean that we need to adjust the way WE collect? No, it just means that we have to be more careful when the hype machine comes knocking at our door. Let the others live and die by their dollars spent on unproven "pre-superstars," and instead take the bird in hand every time. Remember, its not "prospecting" when you are buying high and selling low.

The National Card Show: Strasburg Sells For A Great Cause

I have said that spending money on Strasburg right now is like throwing it down the drain. However, for this one particular instance, I fully support the person that paid an astronomical amount for the Topps National Card Show giveaway. The reason is pretty simple, as the person who was auctioning off the Heritage Strasburg number 1/999 is donating 100% of the proceeds to the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation. Because I have had Diabetes since I was 11, I absolutely love to see people in our hobby support this cause, or any cause for that matter.

Even when you take out the cost of the VIP package to the show, this card sold for an incredible amount of money, and shows that Strasburg still has it going for him in the hobby despite falling victim to his first DL stint. I expect that this card may end up being the most valuable common National Show show giveaway ever, and its great to see that the organizers of the show had such a great idea to raise money for a wonderful cause.

Here on SCU, over the last two years, I have raised over $1200 for the JDRF, but I have never had the kind of success that this auction has had in one fell swoop. I cant tell you how great it makes me feel to see that there are others who carry the banner to cure Diabetes.

If the person who bought this card reads this, shoot me an email at the contact button above. I would love to pick your brain about the sale. Same thing goes for the seller. Congrats on an amazing end to the auction!

The First Strasburg Tribute Auto is Up

The first Strasburg Auto/Jersey from Tribute is up on EBay, and boy do they want a lot of money for it. Granted, they are probably going to get a ton, but still. Ill be interested to see how much these redemptions go for considering that the Ginter ones broke 3 K.

The Grade Is In On The Strasburg 1/1 Red Auto

Im dumbfounded as to why someone would grade a card like the Strasburg 1/1 auto out of 2010 Bowman. Because the card is "worth" so much money to people who would pay the price of a down payment on a house to own it, grading it would seem to be the worst possible idea. If it comes back anything less than a 9.5 you have already chopped some of the value off it, and if it comes back 9.5 or above, the card was already worth more than the risk to have it graded.

Funny enough, that’s exactly what happened. The guy who pulled it put it into an auction house display, and had it graded through Beckett, of course. Aside from the fact that he trusted a 20,000 dollar card to other people for any period of time, it came back a 9. There are multiple explanations that I will discuss, but I just wanted to share my half-LOL over the grade. That’s what you get. If it is indeed a protection thing, which for an auction house may be required, just get it authenticated and call it a day. Then you have the protection but not the ugly look of the completed grade. It takes away from the presentation without a doubt, either way, but at least there is no silver tag on it.

Now, onto the discussion about the grade itself.

Beckett obviously knew the importance of getting this card done the way it NEEDS to get done, instead of simply grading a card a 9.5 just because of the high profile nature of it. The problem with the controversial Strasburg Superfractor is that us "expert" graders felt that just about every aspect of the grade itself was inflated to get Beckett the publicity. If it were graded a 9 or an 8.5 like it should have been, people wouldn’t have had the reaction Beckett wanted them to have. Obviously, it backfired on them and they got smoked.

This card looks A LOT better than the Superfractor, but it got a lower grade because of the subgrades for corners and surface. Honestly, I don’t see how it could be less "super-mega-pristine-mint" than the Superfractor. Its most likely a lesser because Beckett didn’t want egg on their face for the millionth time this decade, and this is the one time that I actually see them in a no-win situation. If they grade it a 9.5, we call them out again for fucking up the Strasburg 1/1 auto AND the Strasburg Super. That’s a track record that hurts business. If they grade it anything less, its because they knew what would happen if they didn’t. Basically, there is not a way they could do it right. Even if for some god forsaken reason they hold true to their arbitrary standards and give it the grade it deserves, it doesn’t matter because they screwed, scratch that, RAPED the pooch on the previous card.

It is this argument that I have stated NUMEROUS times when going over the grading business not service. This business that Beckett has brought to the forefront of the hobby is an unregulated paid service that generates them more money than their magazine at this point. Even though Beckett has constantly addressed that their public figureheads have nothing to do with BGS, the company still has to answer for the mistakes of both. The video explaining the grade for the Super was a big mistake, the grade itself was an even bigger mistake, and it actually calls a lot of stuff into question for a lot of collectors who may not have questioned that stuff in any other scenario. If the Super was graded a 9, and this was graded a 9, you have no problem with people who don’t usually get involved. But because you have the inferior super at 9.5 and the superior red at 9, people start to question everything about everything.

Personally, this is just one card in a series of thousands that I would question. Without getting into my disregard for the entire grading process, its impossible to do it right with humans and human tendencies running the show. That’s the bottom line. To say that the graders themselves have no idea what type of shit storm they are handling each time they do a card like the Super or the red auto, is ridiculous. They know exactly what is going on and they have specific instructions. You know why? Because no regulatory body will ever question what they say. They have established themselves as THE graders, and they have also made it abundantly clear that we have NO right to question them. Well, no. Fuck them.

This is where your questions and concerns finally show them that they are not an unquestionable titan.

Harper Superfractor Hits Ebay

The Bryce Harper Superfractor is up on eBay, and has already been bid up to quite a considerable amount of money. Harper has generated equal hype as Strasburg did at this point in his career, and most likely will reach the same level next year when Washington inevitably calls him up. This card should easily hit 10K, even with the reserve, and it just goes to show you what people think about the crop of cards from this year's Bowman. Its odd, because this is the first time that MULTIPLE cards from a product have/will break the modern card ceiling that I have talked about on numerous occasions, as his red refractor, a few Strasburgs, and one or two others should hit that number if auctioned.

I stand behind the fact that Harper is more likely to end up on a level similar to Ryan Braun than Albert Pujols, and though Braun is no slouch by any means, the upward mobility of this card is definitely limited. I commented before that even if his hype counterpart Strasburg performs at Tim Lincecum's ridiculous level, the team they play for will limit how much his cards will eventually be worth in comparison. Outside of that unlikely possibility of playing at a ginormous success rate, its still not out of the question that either will play to a long and great career outcome. However, does that mean that their inevitable production will necessitate prices like this, even when Harper's card is a USA card and generally considered to be an XRC or whatever by those standards?

Im actually frightened as to what happens when the Strasburg Bowman Chrome Auto Superfractor surfaces once Bowman Chrome is released. It may not be able to be sold because the expected value will far exceed the money people have to pay for it.

Cue the upcoming facepalm, no doubt.

Strasburg Still Blowing It Up In Ginter, Just Not As Much

Remember those first Strasburg minis that popped up on eBay? They sold for ridiculous prices just like every other gift from Topps' epic Stras-mas haul. Among reports that the minis were ridiculously short printed and may not even be a part of the main set, prices went wild. Of course, once people started pulling them a little more frequently, prices dropped dramatically, but still remain high for some reason.

They are obviously short printed, but not to the point that would normally lead to prices as astronomical as they are. Strasburg is Strasburg however, and despite performances that really havent really blown people away more or less than Lincecum did in his rookie year, his cards are like napalm in the morning.

Then, when you see the price that the autos are selling for, you begin to question what people actually see in buying cards at these prices. Even if my favorite player had rookie cards that cost this much, ones that weren't more special than any other rookie cards, I would still be saying the same thing about people who think that spending thousands on these autos is a good idea. Its just crazy.

Check out some of these prices:

Strasburg Base Mini - This is one of the originals. Note the price.

Strasburg Base Mini - Here is one that sold recently via auction. Note this price too. Funny what message board comments are capable of at the beginning.

Strasburg Auto Redemption - Really? Seriously? That much? Think of the other STRAS items this person could buy. He doesnt even know what these cards look like yet!

Listen, dont get me wrong, I see why Stras is popular. However, Ginter is a product that is meant for people who dont really spend thousands the way these cards dictate. The popularity of Ginter is widespread but it is usually a result of set collectors trying to build sets rather than high end collectors buying autos. Just an interesting situation that I STILL do not understand.

The Strasburg Superfractor Has Beckett Written All Over It

Because its so rare that I get worked up over something that happens in the hobby, I think its only natural that I comment on the recent sale of the Strasburg superfractor to Razor entertainment for a little over $21,000. This card sure has generated a lot of press, including national media outlets, and when I read about the sale on Blowout, I became awfully frustrated with the guy who paid the original ridiculous price for a ridiculous card. Of course, my frustration with Beckett followed suit, as well.

When Power, an accountant, purchased the Superfractor for 16,000 dollars, there was so much shock in the sale that a lot of us were questioning the motives of a guy who had just come back to the hobby. It didn’t look like he knew anything about the card, and really didn’t even look like he knew anything about cards in general. Then, after a high(er) profile interview on ESPN, he relisted the card, much to the dismay of all the collectors who originally supported him (and those who didn’t). The card sold again for much more than he originally paid for it, but much like everyone expected, the sale did not go through. The card was eventually sold to Brian Grey and Razor for around 21K to be used in an upcoming product as the holy grail.

Beckett, in all their infinite wisdom, decided it was worth their time to check in again with Power, this time to find out why he gave up on his investment so quickly. Personally, I could have told you the reason in one sentence, but they decided it was worth about 20 pages. Its pretty obvious to me that even Power understood that keeping a card like that was not going to be worth his time, thanks to the extreme popularity and potential surrounding Stras' first few starts, and decided to get his money back plus some. However, Beckett thought that it needed more than a simple explanation, and showed just what the hobby can do to a new collector. The problem with that is not what Power experienced as a person who bought one of the most high profile cards on the planet, its what Beckett brought to his door, and that’s what I feel bears discussion.

First off, Power sites negativity as a main reason for his resale of the card. To that I want to call shenanigans, and offer this commentary. I mean, I just don’t understand what he expected to happen. Did he think that hundreds of people were going to praise him for choosing a baseball card over a new Honda Accord or something like that? With fame comes haters, and those haters have nothing better to do than try to make you feel like you are a douche. Haters are only successful if they get to you, which is why just about every person who has a hater posse just ignores them. I don’t even read comments from my hater posse anymore, I actually have a special spam folder set up for them. What is the point?

Secondly, why would you complain about how many messages you get when you are the one who gave that initial interview? Power easily could have remained in the dark, keeping the card he "had to have." Instead he went on the main hobby news source, ESPN, and just about every other place to talk about his buy. If that isnt asking, scratch that, BEGGING for attention, I don’t know what is. My favorite part of this is that Beckett seems to take an omniscent narrator stance on this whole thing, like they had nothing to do with the negativity surrounding the card. If anything, I would say they are responsible for most of it. They presented Power like he was some sort of folk hero, and then did even more damage by giving the card the grade they did. In fact, I would say most of the negativity, at least now, surrounds Beckett's biased grade of the card rather than Power himself. Maybe he needs to talk to them about the bad press rather than whining about how negativity spoiled his hobby rebirth.

All of that is just par for the course for Beckett, and I guess that Power really doesn’t have the hobby experience to know that. Five years ago, maybe this would have been a much different situation, but Beckett has done so much over that period of time to soil their reputation, that its become more commonplace to hate Beckett than side with them now. I remember when I first discovered online collecting and how many people loved each and every box break that Beckett did. These days, that’s not even close to the case, and I still laugh when people snark at a big pull with "those boxes were meant for Beckett."

Hell, just writing this post has made it tough to avoid another huge rant on the grading business or Beckett in general, and I think that is just a testament to the polarization that Beckett propagates in this hobby. You either are or you arent, and its really too bad that Power didn’t have the forsight to realize that the Beckett "aren'ts" and fame stalkers wouldn’t let him have a pass. I guess that’s what you get with 15 minutes of fame, and for our friends in Texas to take a "hands washed" stance on it like they did is completely stupid. Nice job again Beckett. Even nicer job Mr. Power.

Allen & Ginter Adds High End To Its Impressive Resume

Allen and Ginter is a set collector's dream, or nightmare depending on how you look at it. The cards are designed to have maximum collectability and most of the set isnt even baseball players. Its one of the most popular sets of the year, and Topps collectors wait all year for the opportunity to break it and put the set together.

Well, there is a new aspect to the set this year, and I am not sure how I feel about it. Booklet cards have infested the product for 2010, and my hatred for booklet cards in general make me want to completely bash every aspect of these ones. Ever since the satanic abominations that made their debut in 2007 Triple Threads, my all time favorite set, booklets have penetrated every thing. 2009 Exquisite football, Exquisite Basketball, almost every Topps product that they could fit them into, and even ridiculous TRI-fold cards in Triple Craps. Despite my hatred, for some reason, these look okay for once. It could be the white border, the lack of neon blue foil board, or the painted aspects of the cards, but I don’t hate these cards.

They are going for ridiculous money, and a few have started to show up on eBay. Obviously, the focus of the set is far from cards like this, but I have a feeling that with the inclusion of the Strasburg autos and minis, A&G is heading towards high end pulls for 2010. Cuts have always been an extremely rare part of the set, but rarely become the chase. These are surely to fall into that category, and I expect them to continue to be worth massive cheese for a long time.

Speaking of higher end pulls, the booklets arent the only part of the equation. I just saw that Ginter also has cards like this, and like this which take ridiculous to a whole new level. I cant even begin to imagine how much these will go for, but they are beyond words. I may have to keep an eye out to see if any Twins are on the checklist for these type of cabinet cards.

Who knows, maybe there are even parts we have yet to see.

First Strasburg Ginter Auto is Up

Let the bidding wars begin! The first Strasburg auto from 2010 Allen and Ginter is up on eBay and it is ALREADY at a ridiculous price. With the perceived rarity probably matching the actual rarity now, this card may top 3K or higher, depending on the willingness of bad bidders to let it run.

This card should be one of Strasburg's rarest base autographs, if information from certain case breakers holds true for the whole print run. With the minis expected to top 1000 at first shot, it may mean that the prices of these redemptions may never drop to a reasonable level - even if Strasburg comes down to earth. With A&G being a set collector's goal every single year, its not long before the set collectors file in behind the mentally challenged prospectors who still think they can make money on him.

I have never been a Ginter fan, mainly because I have never cared about set collecting, but I can see where people freaking go ape shit over it. We are in the midst of the biggest year of baseball cards in the last few decades, and its only going to get crazier once sets like Bowman Chrome hit shelves.

Prepare yourselves…

Strasburg Eerily Absent From Recent Ginter Box Breaks

Do you remember back a few weeks ago when Topps advised that every product will bring Strasmus tidings to all the good young collectors who bought the boxes and packs? I do, and I then remember when the people who usually buy a ton, bought that much more as a result. Well, as we are slowly finding out, promises of Strasburg in Allen and Ginter may have been quite highly exaggerated.

So far, there are a lot of early reports that cases have not only gone Strasburg-less - but also have been missing case hits themselves as well. This is even more evident when people who buy huge amounts of products are reporting box after box, case after case, filled with everything but a whiff of a Strasburg.

Considering that the price of this product has been driven very high by promises of the Nationals' Fireballer, there are going to be a lot of unhappy set collectors who are now left with boxes worth a lot less than they paid for them.

Im sure Topps will release an explanation through the usual channels, Ill post updates as soon as I have them.

Steven Strasburg: WTF?!?!? Edition

Am I missing something? No, seriously, am I really seeing what I think I am seeing? A card, available in regular packs at no real lack of distribution, is going for how much? I would understand if it were autographed, or if it were ridiculously SPed, but this is what seems to be a normal mini that you can probably get in retail packs for fuck's sake!

When you see that the autographed version of his 2010 Bowman card can be had for around $650, why in god's name would anyone in their right mind pay THIS much for a normal and not rare card? Most of the Allen & Ginter minis are rar-ER pulls than a base card, and I get that Stras wont have a base card, but this much? Cmon, we have reached a level beyond insanity.

I can only imagine what the first auto is going to go for, even though its a redemption. I would guess the first one will easily top 2K, and settle in around 1,000 for the first month. After that, I would guess that the Bowman auto and the rest of the autos should equal out to be around the same price when all is said and done. Its still beyond stupid though.

I do continue to think people should be committed for buying at these prices, as its obvious that Washington isnt going to be the next Philadelphia in the National League. Not to mention that Tim Lincecum, a 2 time, 2 time, cy young winner has autos that can be had for close to nothing compared to the ridiculous prices that Strasburg is going for.

Its actually rare that I am befuddled by something that happens in this hobby, I mean truly and utterly befuddled. Even though I dont think that anyone should ever pay any attention to anything with a Triple Threads logo on it, I at least get why some people (who must have vision problems, I guess) like to collect the cards. People who pay what they are paying for boxes of Bowman and anything with Stras' picture on the front is literally something I cannot understand.

UPDATE: Ebay has pulled these auctions.

A "Super" Great Superfractor Auction

Im confused. Why in god's name would anyone want to grade a superfractor? I just don’t understand the point, especially when the card is not available anywhere else. People often argue protection, but if that is the case, why even get it with a grade? When you factor in that the guy who graded the Stras superfractor needed a little "help" to get the 9.5, its really not worth the risk, when all you can do is damange the value of the card rather than help it, in most cases. That is all after the inherant risk of sending a card like that through the mail to begin with.

This auction is a great and hilarious example of that. The Jason Heyward superfractor 1/1 out of 2010 Bowman was one of the biggest pulls of the entire print run and this is the second time its been posted for sale. Despite the fact that its his THIRD chrome card and SECOND auto, people out there still want to pay thousands for it for some god forsaken reason. In the auction mentioned above, the buyer is also going to get a Strasburg Auto which looks to be graded a 9.5 legit instead of a "9.5," something that looks to be driving this auction even higher than it normally would. That isnt the funny part though.

The funny part is that the Heyward was stupidly submitted for grading and came back with a 9. That’s what you deserve when you try to use a system that shouldn’t be used. It was almost an 8.5 from what it looks like on the auction description, so maybe the seller got a little "lucky" with this card as well.

Guys, I seriously hate the grading system to begin with, as stated numerous times on this site, but I do think its even more ridiculous when someone thinks that a grade on a superfractor adds more to the card than just an ugly slab. That’s where line should be drawn.

Based On These Sales, Could Topps Set Records?

Its been a long time since a player like Strasburg has come on the scene. Some of his cards are even outselling Albert Pujols, and that says to me that people arent really paying attention to the cap of the card values but really just that Strasburg is on them. With recent sales topping ridiculous amounts, how high is the ceiling for the rest of Topps Calendar?

Allen and Ginter has already sold out at Blowout, and Bowman Chrome will not be far behind. Plus, with the supply of 2010 Bowman jumbo boxes drying up, things are starting to get so insane on prices that I cant even explain it to people not in the hobby.

Check these out:

Strasburg Orange Auto /25 - Wait what? Who in their right mind would drop that kind of cash on a card like this. I can only imagine what is going to happen when the Chrome version comes out. Its going to be even more insane.

Base Strasburg Auto BGS 10 - Ok, this may deserve to be on the top of this list because I am in utter shock. With the recent grading "scandal" I think its becoming more understood what really makes up a BGS grade. Then when you factor in that this bidder paid a premium of multiple THOUSANDS of dollars and you just have to scratch your head. Plus, im not even going to go into my difference between 9.5 and 10 argument again. Holy shit.

Base Strasburg Auto PSA 10 - Im literally floored by this sale. PSA 10s are generally believed to be at the level of a BGS 9.5 with a few 10 subgrades, and yet this thing sold for how much? Strasmus in june indeed.

Base Strasburg Auto BGS 9.5 - When comparing the base raw to the base 9.5 and seeing that the price doubles is completely fucking ridiculous. I dont have anything else to say about that. Show me another card where that happens. Plus, who is seriously paying 600+ for these non-chrome cards anyways?

Strasburg Million Card Giveaway Base - For this price you are already 5/6ths of the way to a base auto, so why even try? I still cant believe how much these are going for, and it is even more crazy how much the codes are going for now that there is a chance to unlock one of these. Unbelievable.

Overall, its pretty much understood that Strasburg's cards are going to mean gold for a Topps brand that needed to prove that having the exclusive was worth everyone's time. I would expect HUGE jumps in everything they release for the rest of the year, and for those of you who bought in to cases early, welcome to big money.

Move Over Manny Ramirez's Grill, Here Comes Strasburg!

In case you guys havent been following, the Strasburg Red Auto 1/1 is over 100K now for the auction, which says a lot about the legitimacy of the 100+ bids. Obviously, no one is actually going to pay that much for a card that isnt Michael Jordan related or has Honus Wagner related to it, so I don’t think we can count on a sale. For that price, you might as well invest in a house rather than a piece of cardboard for an uproven and unseasoned pitcher.

When eBay would offer a process for pre-approving bidders, this guy should have taken advantage of that, and he could have saved himself a lot of time and a lot of getting his hopes up and having them shot down. This card will still easily sell for an absolutely ridiculous price, but now it has entered into the same territory as Manny Ramirez's infamous "holy grail" of bar-b-que grills.

Maybe he should send it to Beckett before the next auction comes up, looks like a 10 to me, right?

*facepalm*

Buyer's Remorse? Strasburg Superfractor BACK on eBay

I said before that it was ridiculous that anyone would pay as much as that guy did for the Strasburg superfractor. Who would've guessed that it would take a whole 6 weeks for the Strasburg superfractor to be relisted? Not only is it already climbing fast, but it ends on the same day as the Red Auto 1/1. Obviously the guy who bought it A) is trying to captialize on the publicity, and B) doesnt understand that he is going to get shredded by the red auto.

Oh but wait, it gets better.

Not only is this card for sale at the moment, but IT IS BEING GRADED. Yes, because a card that sold for $16,000 is really going to be bumped THAT much by a subjective process done by a publicity starved company looking to make a buck. I guarantee it gets at least a 9.5 even though it probably is an 8, but that's besides the point. Either way, this reaks of stupid all the way around, and I cant wait to see how it turns out.

On second thought, maybe I should go grade my kid. I think it may accomplish just as much as grading this card. At least that way, if I ever find out he was a twin, I can find out which is in better condition.

Its stuff like this that makes me laugh. Seriously, why buy if you are just going to up and re-sell? Someone doesnt know chocolate cake from Entemann's. Cmon.

Here we are, Penthouse floor. Anyone? No? Going down then.

Insanity on the Strasburg Doesnt Even Begin To Say How I Feel

I thought the final price of the Strasburg superfractor was absolutely ridiculous. Now, I use the word ridiculous pretty often, but that word means more in that type of situation because there is no way that anyone from the outside wouldn’t think the exact same way. When you think about $16,000 for a modern non-autographed 1/1 of a prospect who has less than a month under his belt, maybe ridiculous doesn’t even begin to describe the real feelings that 99.9% of america would think. Hell, even his base 1/1 with no discernable redeeming value other than the numbering went for close to 5K.

Then you see the price this card is currently at. With over a week left in the auction, the card is already above 20K. Its no longer the cost of a used honda, its more in the range of a new Lexus, bording on a new Mercedes. Granted, the bids on this card may be problem people muckraking the coverage of it, but some of them are probably legit. Yes, this card IS autographed this time, on card at that, but there is no reason why this card should be even close to the price its at with the recent Bowman Chrome previews that were just released. Just wait until the 1/1 autographed Superfractor hits eBay, that will be truly ridiculous in every sense of the word.

Without discussing the careers of Mark Prior and other fireballers who had similar but not equal hype to Strasburg, its not insane to think that this card would reach or surpass the modern card ceiling. In fact, im kind of surprised that Beckett didn’t chase the card, grade it a 9.5 and sell it for the seller under their account like they have so many times before. But to think that this Strasburg card is worth more than any modern card with a modern player on it sold in the last decade or so, makes me kind of queasy. Kobe/Jordan dual auto logoman? Not at this level. Lebron Exquisite rookie with a three color patch? Not even close. Peyton Manning contenders auto? Peanuts compared to Stras. Adrian Peterson Exquisite 1/1? Even Beckett couldn’t help it get to the Strasburg quotient. Joba Chamberlain superfractor? Laughably close, but no cigar.

I have said before that getting into Strasburg for a few hundred bucks is fine, especially if you one of the 10 previous fans of the Washington team. But when you start getting into the thousands or the tens of thousands, you need your head checked. At least the guy who bought the super wasn’t really a hardcore collector, so he really didn’t understand the dynamics. That is probably what is going to happen here too, but that is not an excuse. Getting in on the penthouse level, even for fans, makes absolutely no sense at this type of price, even if you have the money. Go remodel your movie theater or bowling alley in your house instead of throwing your money away. I even think Keith Olbermann has better things to do, and he makes a ton of money.

Bottom line, these bidders may laugh at us for not being in their tax bracket, but we will be the ones laughing when all is said and done.

Bowman Chrome Promises Crazy Money

Hope you bought into 2010 Bowman Chrome this past month before this preview, because prices are going to jump after people see it. I have been talking about the Strasburgmas that is a comin' for the last few weeks since the big superfractor sale, and this preview confirms the crazy perfect storm on the horizon. I have said that when it comes to the superfractors, the first auto will almost always trump the first card, and in this case, I definitely think it will as well. Because of that fact, as well as another most likely amazing auto checklist, Bowman Chrome should shine as brightly if not brighter than 2010 Bowman.

I hope it does, because when the hype machine gets rolling, its very good for the hobby in general.

Strasburg 1/1 Red Auto Surfaces on EBay

When 2010 Bowman was released, there were three cards that people were chasing above any other. One was the Heyward Superfractor, one was the now infamous Strasburg superfractor, and the other was the Strasburg 1/1 red auto. As of last week, the red 1/1 auto had not surfaced, and people were beginning to wonder how long it would take for it to show up for sale.

Well, its up now with a STAGGERING price, but I guess that is warranted considering that the unsigned Superfractor went for the price of a Honda Accord. I think there are a few points to discuss here when considering a final price, and I am sure all of these points will add up in the mind of the person who ultimately buys this card.

1. The superfractors, despite their ugliness, are the pinnacle of 1/1s in any Bowman product (or Topps product for that matter). Therefore, I would expect someone to want the super more than the 1/1 auto, as stupid as that sounds, simply because it is a superfractor. As an auto collector over a card collector, I would always want the auto first, but the hobby obviously feels differently.

2. Strasburg will have a superfractor auto in 2010 Bowman chrome, which will be worth more than this card, and possibly even the other superfractor. Auto superfractors are higher on the totem pole than non-auto. Since there are rarely non-chrome cards with as much hype as the Strasburg autos in 2010 Bowman, I would expect that the high end prospectors will value the chrome ones more.

3. The price is just asking for more news coverage, but I dont think it will sell even close to that. It will sell above 10K as long as Strasburg does well in his start, but the value of the card will drop come the release of both Topps chrome and Bowman chrome in the next few months due to the Strasburg cards available in those products. For this reason, I would expect this card to either sell off eBay or something similar, mainly because of the ridiculous amount of fees that it will take to get it off the auction block.

Personally, I could not even fathom a reason to invest in a card like this, even if you are rich beyond your wildest dreams. There is just no way that cards like this will continue to be worth as much as you pay, and almost ALWAYS come back on the market for that reason. Its the same reason we were all laughing when the Joba Chamberlain superfractor sold for 7K+.

I guess there are still some crazy rich people out there though, as there is obviously a lot of takers for cards like this.

Getting Aboard The Strasburg Hype Train Will Needlessly Drain Your Bank Account

If you missed Stephen Strasburg's debut, you may have been one of the only people in the sports world to do so. The hype behind yesterday's game was so ridiculous that it spilled over into almost every aspect of sports coverage. Not only was MLB network broadcasting the game, but ESPN was giving live updates, and websites were doing trackers. In the hobby, it was similar, as Topps declared it Stephen Strasburg day, offering contests and giveaways related to his debut.

Aside from the massive amounts of coverage, many collectors were waiting on pins and needles to see if their investments were going to pay off, at least temporarily. Even though Strasburg was pitching against the worst team in baseball, he did have a pretty amazing performance with 14 Ks. Pittsburgh has won at least a few games, and the Nationals are almost as terrible. There was actually a good chance that he could pitch one run baseball and end up with the loss (not that record should have anything to do with it). I think people were just hoping that he wouldn’t screw the pooch too badly and get roughed up. I don’t believe anyone was expecting what actually happened though.

Over the last week, his values have gone from ridiculous to insane. I mean, for pitching in a collecting black hole, his cards were already AS expensive as Lincecum, a pitcher who has already done it all for a better team. Then, post-call up, his values went so high that I am continually surprised how much people are willing to pay for cards that have already hit their ceiling. Then when you consider that Strasburg will have his first Chrome auto coming later this year, and people are still paying what they are for the base bowman cards, I start to question the general intelligence of the hobby more so than I already do.

Check out some of these recent sales, and then tell me that the people who are buying these cards are looking at this the right way.

Base Bowman Chrome (NO AUTO) - This is a BASE card. A. BASE. CARD. I cant even explain this. I got mine for 17 dollars only because I had 13 ebay bucks. Now I may have to sell.

Bowman Orange Auto /25 - Cmon. Really? Wow. This is a nice card, sure, but for THAT much? Good lord.

Bowman Orange Auto /25 See previous explanation, then add some shock.

Bowman Base Auto - When was the last time you saw a prospect auto go for this much - even some of the higher number parallels? There cant be THAT many Nationals fans out there that would pay that much for a card with no upside.

Bowman Blue Auto /250 - Paying this much money for a card numbered THAT high is terrible. I really don’t get it, even more so when you see that he will be in EVERY product this year.

Bowman Base Auto BGS 9.5 - Double the price for a 9.5? Since when? It would be one thing if these cards were like the Chrome versions that had a lot of condition problems, I don’t think these had that kind of issue. Seriously though, there is never a reason to pay a 100% premium on a graded card, let alone one that is only a 9.5 and not a 10. What a scam.

Bowman Base Auto - This one broke five hundred? Im going to laugh at this one in a year or two I believe. Some Pujols first year autos don’t go for this much. PUJOLS. ALBERT EFFING PUJOLS.

Again, prospecting is prospecting, but buying at the extreme peak of a players values isnt even worth it for his biggest fans. Washington is a terrible team in a terrible sports city, and people are acting like he is a New York Yankee. His values CANNOT hold, so why waste your money and pay 40% more than you should. Its ridiculousness at its finest.

EDIT: The first Strasburg MCG giveaway card has 55 bids on it. I will laugh if the card from Topps U&H has no differences and is completely indistinguishable. (Thanks to dayf for letting me know that U&H is numbered differently. Everyone will need to spend a ton now to truly complete the base set. Nice job there.)

When it Comes To Hype, Does Harper = Strasburg

The MLB draft is coming up, and there is one particular player that has been focused on more than any other leading up to the National's second number one pick in as many years. Much like Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper is supposed to be one of those "cant miss" prospects due to his ability to hit for power and average. He has been featured in Sports Illustrated and in just about every baseball publication,and his cards are the only ones to even rival (or sometimes eclipse) the value of Strasburg's from 2010 Chrome.

Harper was recently slated to be developed as a more valuable outfielder instead of the Catcher most scouts expected him to be drafted as, something that should do a lot for his card values. As a five tool player, he should end up as a combination of Joe Mauer and Evan Longoria, but that is only if he lives up to the massive expectations placed on his head. As of now, the hype machine is a whirling dervish swirling about, and his prices will most likely jump when he is splashed all over every page of every baseball site once again.

The big news should be announced shortly after, as it is likely that he will be included as a USA auto in both Topps Chrome this october and as a featured card in 2010 Bowman Draft Picks. Like Strasburg, his prices are so high that buying now would be completely ludicrous, and after the draft pick is announced, I would laugh at anyone hitting the BINs.

The one drawback to all of this is that unlike former number one picks like Mauer and Longoria, Harper is widely believed to be a hothead with entitlement issues. He also has Scott Boras as his agent, which may lead to some incompatibility issues if things get blown out of proportion. When looking at the production of his future compadres in the bigs, he sure has a lot to live up to, and its going to be interesting to see if he becomes the next Ryan Braun or the next Todd Van Poppel. With the prices that people are paying for his cards, there are going to be a lot of sad pandas out there if something doesnt go the way it is expected to.