Upper Deck Has A Exquisitely Tough Problem To Deal With

There is a time when signing on the patch of a card is great. I am a big fan of signed memorabilia cards, and I seek them for my collection when available. There are also times when it is catestrophic, and this is one of those times.

For some of the 2009 Exquisite Rookie Patch Auto cards, a few rookies got the instructions wrong. With so many signed patch sets in the product, I can see why they may get confused, yet it should be the job of Upper Deck to run QC and maybe even include more detailed instructions for the rookies to sign. Mark Sanchez, in particular is the most visible rookie in the set, and it looks as if he did each and every one of his /99 base rookie autos incorrectly. What makes this even more ridiculous is that he did all of his /25 cards right, signing on the card and not the patch. This makes me wonder a few things.

First, when Phil Hughes was a member over on the old BMB, he documented a signing he did on about five or six different card sets. Each card set had EXPLICIT instructions, including little arrow stickers where he should sign. Did someone label Sanchez's cards incorrectly? It could be a definite possibility.

Secondly, with all the signing of memorabilia in this set, it’s a possibility that sanchez signed all sorts of material for the mem cards, his /25 cards, and all the other subsets for the product, but didn’t sign the /99 ones due to whatever problem. Instead of having a redemption and making people wait, they just used 99 pieces of the material he signed. The reason I say this is because the swatches are signed in silver pen, not the blue that the cards are usually signed in. Not a likely scenario, but plausible.

Lastly, maybe this is a Sanchez problem, and he made a mistake due to rushing through the cards. One of our closest family friends is close with a past NBA lottery pick, and he told me a story that would make a ton of sense. Basically, his friend HATED signing the cards because of how long it took, so they had to force him to do it due to the contract he signed. They helped keep him focused while he signed, and im sure he didn’t mind if he made a mistake. On the other hand, from what I heard from people watching Sanchez at the rookie premiere, that’s not his personality, and he is one of those people who likes making his fans happy. As for Kenny Britt, another player who made the SAME mistake, Im not sure.

In the end, we are stuck with what we got, and I guess its better than nothing. Sanchez's /25 cards just became more valuable, either way, so I guess that’s a plus for the people who pulled them. Regardless of whose mistake it was, this is the biggest football set of the year without question, and it should have been taken care of rather than packed out. With all the recent problems for Upper Deck, you don’t want the biggest player in the biggest set to have these issues.

I guess we can await the news of what UD will do, if anything.

Hobby Breakdown: AFC Championship Game

A few days ago I broke down the NFC championship game from the perspective of value in the hobby. Today I want to do a similar thing for the AFC. Remember, this is not a discussion of who is better or who is going to win. Its just a recap of hobby value.

Quarterback

Starter: Peyton Manning

Team: Colts

Rookie Year: 1998

Best Rookie Card: 1998 Playoff Contenders

Average Sell Value For That Card: $3,000

Autos Usually Sell For: $120

Commentary: Manning's contenders auto is EXTREMELY rare and is EXTREMELY expensive. I actually had to guess based on a few ending auctions. If the Colts win this year, he definitely becomes a front runner in the Brady/Manning/Montana/Marino conversation for the best ever.

Starter: Mark Sanchez

Team: Jets

Rookie Year: 2009

Best Rookie Card: 2009 Playoff Contenders (So Far)

Average Sell Value For That Card: $170

Autos Usually Sell For: $150 (all rookies)

Commentary: Sanchez is not the reason why the Jets are in this game, but collectors have overlooked his struggles. His most expensive card will be his Exquisite auto, but without release, the Contenders tops the list. If the Jets win, look for major movement, especially before and after the Super Bowl.

Advantage: Colts

Running Back

Starter: Joseph Addai

Team: Colts

Rookie Year: 2006

Best Rookie Card: 2006 Exquisite Collection

Average Sell Value For That Card: $85

Autos Usually Sell For: $20

Commentary: Addai has never gotten any love, from being swept up in the hype of Reggie Bush, or being lost among the Mannings, he hasnt found a niche yet with collectors. I dont see it changing much unless he blows up in the final two games, mainly because of a mediocre season.

Starter: Shonn Greene

Team: Jets

Rookie Year: 2009

Best Rookie Card: 2009 Playoff Contenders (So Far)

Average Sell Value For That Card: $50

Autos Usually Sell For: $30 (all rookies)

Commentary: If there is one person in this game that could hit the stratosphere in terms of value, its Shonn Greene. He has had an amazing run through the playoffs, and with a victory, or a good performance tomorrow, he could be a hobby superstar next year.

Advantage: Tie

Wide Receiver

Starter: Reggie Wayne

Team: Colts

Rookie Year: 2001

Best Rookie Card: 2001 Playoff Contenders

Average Sell Value For That Card: $130

Autos Usually Sell For: $20

Commentary: Reggie Wayne is one of the best receivers in the league, but you wouldnt know it from his prices. His value really doesnt have that much room to improve either, as colts receivers have never been appreciated. I would call that the Manning effect, evidenced by Harrison's low prices too, but I have a feeling its more their position.

Starter: Braylon Edwards

Team: Jets
Rookie Year: 2005 (Browns)

Best Rookie Card: 2005 Exqusite Collection

Average Sell Value For That Card: $90

Autos Usually Sell For: $15 and Under

Commentary: Edwards went from hobby love child to hobby outcast during his stint with the Browns, mostly because of performance. When he was traded to the Jets, things picked up as the Jets got better. He really hasnt done much, but the fans still want his stuff.

Advantage: Colts

Tight End

Starter: Dallas Clark

Team: Colts

Rookie Year: 2003

Best Rookie Card: 2003 UD SPX and 2003 Playoff Contenders (tie)

Average Sell Value For That Card: $45

Autos Usually Sell For: $30

Commentary: Dallas Clark may be the best tight end in the league, and fans love the goofy white guy playing like a human bowling ball. His cards are suprisingly expensive, but I doubt they will go anywhere higher with a Colts win.

Starter: Dustin Keller

Team: Jets

Rookie Year: 2008

Best Rookie Card: 2008 Exquisite Collection

Average Sell Value For That Card: $22

Autos Usually Sell For: $15 (all rookies)

Commentary: Keller is a newcomer to the scene and has become a favorite target of Mark Sanchez. He has a lot of value upside, but I doubt he will be a decision maker in this game. If he is, he could move to a higher bracket for good.

Advantage: Colts

Overall

At this point, we can call it for the Colts, and they are the favorite in the game as well. I think this game may end up being closer than many of us expect it to be, and I am predicting a Colts/Vikings Super Bowl. For this type of comparison, the star power sides with Indy, and I believe its going to seem that way on the field too. However, the wild card is the choke hold of the Jets defense, which could spell defeat for Peyton.

Advantage: Colts

NFL Rookie Battle Royale: Week 8

It was a great weekend of football, as you can probably imagine, and there were quite a few rookies that performed pretty well. A few are still having trouble getting established, but others are falling into solid roles with their respective teams. The funny thing is that there isnt a clear cut rookie of the year candidate yet, though Sanchez does seem to have an advantage as a QB. Who knows at this point.

Matt Stafford

We all knew Stafford was going to have problems playing for a team as bad as the Lions. I warned those of you who were prospecting his stuff, that he was a POOR target for your collecting this year. He hasnt performed horribly, but he hasnt been great either. Then, when you factor in the injury, things are even worse. Well, he was back this week, but didnt do much in the loss to the Rams. He had 168 yards, 1 interception, and a rushing TD. Not a great game.

Mark Sanchez

Sanchez had a very good day, but they still lost to the Dolphins. This was really his first good game in a long time, and its probably a breath of fresh air for the people who bought up all his stuff at the beginning of the season. He is still the top guy of the 09 class by far, but he is going to need a playoff run to sustain his value. At this point im not sure, even though he put up 3 TDs and no interceptions yesterday.

Percy Harvin

If there was a rookie in focus this week, it was Percy Harvin. His game was one of the main reasons the Vikings were able to win the game, especially on his 51 yd TD catch. Then, when you factor in that he had a kick return average of 35 yards, with three going over 45, it becomes even more apparent how important he was. Harvin's cards have been going for great prices, and should continue to do so. The guy is electric.

LeSean McCoy

What a game for the Eagles against their rivals, right? McCoy definitely did well to help that win, and his 69 yard TD run was fun to watch. He has been a great option for the Eagles during Westbrook's absence, and you can tell that they were thinking ahead when they drafted him. Due to the Peterson Effect (All RB cards are more valuable because of the chance of a Peterson style rookie season) his cards are already pretty expensive, but this should help maintain those prices.

Jeremy Maclin

Im impressed with Maclin, the guy has turned it on lately, and has done so on a team that needed it. The Eagles are on a roll, and Maclin has scored 3 TDs in the last 3 games. He had 4 for 47 yards, including a TD at the end of the half that stunned a Giants crowd looking to stop their slide. Maclin was under the radar to begin with, and I think may end up as the best WR out of this class. I may start to pick up a few of his cards.

Michael Crabtree

Crabtree was held out of the endzone again, but managed 81 yards against the Colts. He also fumbled, which was problematic, but overall a pretty good game for a rookie who only has two games under his belt. Kind of makes you wonder what would have happened if he hadnt been a complete fucktard to begin the season.

Shonn Greene

I dont think there were many of us who were suprised when Greene didnt equal his game from last week, but there were a few shocked grins around my fantasy league to see him struggle with 8 carries for 18 yards. Im not expecting a whole lot out of him, but he needs to do better than 2 yards per carry.

Knowshon Moreno

The Broncos are no longer undefeated, and Knowshon did not have a very good game. Although the fumble he had looked questionable at best, it was still another tick on the league leading rookie fumble total. He did get into the endzone which helped, but he only had 10 carries for 39 total yards. Moreno's cards arent going to drop, but this doesnt help. I still say its only a matter of time before he breaks out with a huge game.

The Rookie Graveyard

Darrius Heyward-Bey - The Raiders should have taken someone else, but we already knew that. He has done absolutely nothing, despite QB issues.

Brandon Pettigrew - Another bad team, but he should be doing more than 1 catch per game, especially when Calvin Johnson is on the shelf

Michael Crabtree - He needs a lot of production to erase the holdout. Im still shaking my head.

Beanie Wells - Another mediocre game for him losing to a team with problems. Doesnt help that Warner threw 5 interceptions either though.

NFL Rookie Battle Royale: Week 7

For this week, I missed most of the action from being in San Diego for work, but after going through each game, looks like the rookies had a good week. Too bad my Vikings did not. Regardless, we also had a debut we had waited almost half a season for, and a few performances that impressed beyond expectations.

Mark Sanchez

Dirty finally shook off the interception bug, even though it was against one of the worst teams around. He threw for only 143, but had 2 TDs to offset that. Im guessing a lot of Jets fans were just happy they pitched a shutout, but I expected a little more from the rookie that is fixing to be the top value guy for the year.

Shonn Greene

For the first time, Sanchez wasn’t the focus of the rookie lens this week, as Shonn Greene had a ridiculous game at 144 and 2 TDs. One TD came after it was already decided, but he is the front runner right now for the rookie of the week. Leon Washington must have had an injury, and Greene did a great job filling in. Best game of any rookie RB so far, crazy that it came against the Raiders, right?

Michael Crabtree

Im not going to take him out of the graveyard quite yet, but he had a respectable debut with 5 catches for 56 yards. At least he showed he can be somewhat productive, though I think he will get better as he shakes off the rust. He didn’t explode, but definitely was the namesake for a few creative jerseys I saw in the 49er bar in San Diego.

Mike Wallace

Its tough for any Pittsburgh rookie to fly under the radar, but in terms of talk, Wallace is putting up one hell of a rookie campaign without much coverage. His values were high to begin with because he plays for the Steelers, but 72 and a TD will definitely help you out. Wallace's TD was a good showing as to why the Vikings pass defense may cost them a trip deep in the playoffs, but he played a great game either way.

Hakeem Nicks

Nicks showed AGAIN why he is probably going to be the rookie WR of the year. Another TD, 80 yards, and a league lead in receiving TDs after a Knox mediocre game. Nicks has become a key cog in the NY passing offense, even though they got beat by the Cardinals.

Percy Harvin

Harvin was back returning kicks again after he aggravated his shoulder last week, and I was surprised to see him fly. Harvin ran back his second TD of the year, giving him 4 total TDs so far, as well as a few that set the Vikings up near the 50. He also caught 3 for 42, so a great game for a guy who is banged up.

Brian Hartline

Hartline caught 3 for 94 in a Dolphins game that they should have won, but they played like crap in the 4th quarter. He is a guy that I didnt know much about coming into the year, but he went to OSU, so you know he is going to get a bump this week in value. He does have a TD from week 4 against Buffalo, but hasnt done much else besides this game (10 for 157). I also dont believe he was a Rookie Premiere guy.

Austin Collie

This guy had another TD this week (though the game was over when he did), and continues to make me scratch my head as to where he is coming from. It helps when Peyton Manning is throwing you the ball, but still is impressive when you are pretty much unknown.

Beanie Wells

He finally got into the action with a TD, and against a good rush defense to boot. He ended up with 67 yards, so it wasn’t a stellar performance, but rushing is not the focus of his team with Fitz and Boldin around. Hightower is still getting all the goal line carries, which means that Beainie is not going to have many TDs. Im still not sold on him.

The Rookie Graveyard

Darrius Heyward-Bey - Its really too bad that he was drafted to the Raiders so high, as I think he could have been much better in a place that isnt a graveyard for the whole team.

Beanie Wells - had a TD, but still in the midst of a disappointing year.

Michael Crabtree - After holding out for the first 6 games, he needs to do better than 56 yards before getting out of here.

Brandon Pettigrew - Bye week.

What We Learned From Monday Night

The Jets/Dolphins game was one of the better monday night games I have seen in a very long while. It was exciting, had a few trick plays, and featured some guys that many of us are counting on for our collections and/or fantasy teams. We also got to learn a few things about those guys, especially some of the people that are going to be some big players in the future.

Mark Sanchez

For the last few weeks, Sanchez is really playing like many expected him to play. He is inconsistent with flashes of brilliance. Last week he threw three picks and looked awful, this week he threw no interceptions, but looked okay. He did have a few plays taken away from him, mainly the late drop from Braylon Edwards in the endzone and a TD that was run in by Jones after a nice play by Sanchez previously that was called incomplete and a defensive penalty. Really, this game will do nothing for his values at the top of the class either way, so I wouldnt worry.

Chad Henne

I bought a few Henne cards last year because I didnt think that Pennington would hold as the Miami QB. Im glad I did, as he has adjusted well over the last few weeks to being a legit QB. Henne has gotten better with each game, going from zero TDs his first game, one his second game, to two TDs yesterday with 241 yards of passing. He must be beyond happy to have Ronnie Brown on his team, as he is not going to be anything special without him.

Ronnie Brown

After the Patriots game where the Wildcat came storming onto the scene, the entire league went nuts trying to stop it. They pretty much had suceeded in adjusting until last night when Ronnie Brown again showed why it is so dangerous. He made the Jets defense look silly for some of the plays, especially the last play where he scored the TD to win it. I would say that of all the people that played last night, Brown did the most to make the people around him better. When the Dolphins came out in the Wildcat, I could just see Rex Ryan start to freak.

Ricky Williams

I guess this idiot has put the days of rocking the ganja behind him. I started him due to a lack of options in one of my leagues, and I am fucking glad I did. Williams is having a phenomenal year, and has proven that he is ready to be a part of football again. Granted, he has greatly benefited from having Ronnie Brown ahead of him, but it is still impressive regardless.

Fake Punts

Holy fuck, fakes barely even work in Madden, let alone in the NFL, and somehow the Jets extended two drives with them. Both were runs, but I couldnt believe they even risked the second one considering the big conversion they had on the first. I definitely fault the Miami defensive coordinator for the ridiculous play they had on special teams, but it was surprising none-the-less.

Braylon Edwards

Edwards played great despite the fact that he had spent only a week with the team. If you remember what happened to Roy Williams when he came to Dallas last year, this game he had is day and night. Sanchez will have a great weapon as Edwards becomes more accustomed to the playbook, but he will have to play above his ability to shake the labels that have been stamped on his career lately.

(My bad the first time with this, thanks LSU)

If you missed the game, be sure to go check out the highlights on NFL.com so that you can see how crazy it actually was. I dont think I have posted many times on a game that made no difference to one of my teams, but I felt compelled to after this one. Go take a look.

OH, I forgot: Dolphins Orange Alternates> Broncos AFL anniversary alternates > Seattle's Neon Green Alternates.

Sometimes You Just Get Lucky

After seeing how good the blue refractors look this year out of Topps Chrome football, I went to target and bought a blaster. I didnt really get much out of it, that is, until the last pack:

Its numbered 21/649, and is selling well after his start this year. For a 20 dollar blaster, its a pretty nice thirty to fourty dollar card, perfectly centered and with great corners and edges. The scan is cropped, so dont use that as reference.

Oddly enough, this is the second year in a row that I have pulled a good copper out of a retail blaster, though this one is much timelier than the McFadden I pulled late from 2008 chrome.Im debating whether or not to sell, mainly because of the fact that it wont cost me much if he flops and does nothing for the rest of the year. If he does well, I could be sitting on a few more bucks later on. Either way, ill just keep it with the rest of the Chrome I have from this year until I decide. I am starting to realize how much I have done, it sure looks like a lot in my box, more than last year definitely.

Speaking of Chrome addiction, anyone got any support groups they know of? I could use one.

This Is Why I Stay Away From Bowman Sterling

I dont care what people say about the value of the card, this is one of the most poorly conceived cards of the year. Total and utter shit.

I think it would be 100% better just by removing the awfully placed swatch. I have no idea why they even thought this would be acceptable. Kind of like Sanchez is being sacked by the swatch and trying to get the ball off before he goes down.

For 250 dollars a box, ill pass. Wow.

NFL Rookie Battle Royale: Week 3

All of you know how awesome of a week this has been, especially with the Bungals beating the Steelers, Manning destroying the Cardinals on Sunday night, and the crazy ending to the Vikings game. The rookies decided to show up too, with a few of them having some great games.

Matt Stafford

How could I not lead with the Lions winning? Im still in shock that they were able to put it together for a full 60 minutes. Stafford played pretty well too, as he showed he is starting to gain that confidence he needs to grow in such a horrible offense. Stafford threw a TD that started everything off for the Lions, thus bringing his total to two in three games, but he didn’t throw an interception, so that is like icing on the cake for a rookie QB. I still say its not a good idea to hold his cards, but at least it’s a LITTLE more promising now that the streak is over.

Mark Sanchez

Sanchez played another great game and came away with another win. It was another great defense, the best arguably, but he was calm and collected even during a bad second half. He had a great TD pass to Cotchery in double coverage and ran one in from 14 out. He ended with with 3 total TDs and is making a few people wonder why they may have passed on him at picks 2-4 in the draft. Sanchez cards are at the peak of their value right now, so if you have them, it may be good to sell and rebuy later, if there is a later. Looks like he will be the Matt Ryan value of his class this year.

Percy Harvin

Harvin was great in the Vikings win, scoring his third TD in as many games. He played great during the second half especially, running back a kick 101 yards and catching some key passed on the final drive that led to the score. He ended up with his best game in terms of yardage, but the return was the spike the Vikings needed to stay in the game after being shut down time after time by the Niners' Defense. Like Sanchez, Harvin's cards are at the peak of their value, so it’s a great time to sell if you arent a fan.

LeSean McCoy

Im thinking that Brian Westbrook doesn’t feel so bad he missed that game anymore as McCoy sure picked up the slack with ease. The Eagles routed the Chiefs and McCoy got his first TD of the year. He also racked up 80+ yards and a YPC avg over four yards in the effort. McCoy should be pretty good in the long run, though he will always be overshadowed by Westbrook. Keep his cards for right now, as his value has a lot of potential to go up from here.

Knowshon Moreno

Welcome to the NFL Mr. Moreno. Nice to see you. Glad you put up 90 yards and a TD, bout time a running back in Denver does well, right? Knowshon looked pretty good in his first game with a focus over Buckhalter, and I would expect by week 8 he will have 70-80% of the carries. He is a great back, and should continue to put up numbers week after week. As with all the first round running backs, his value is high due to the Peterson effect, but as it starts to come down, it should be a good idea to pick some of his stuff up.

Donald Brown

That 72 yard scamper was pretty impressive wasn’t it? Well, it helped him put up the first 100 total yard game for a non-QB rookie this year, and jumped his value pretty high as a result. Brown doesn’t have the luxury of a huge college following like Wells, but he showed why he needs a pro following. Wells managed -2 yards on 2 carries, while Brown did great. This guy is a keeper.

Johnny Knox

Another game, another TD for Knox, despite the fact that it was his only catch of the game. He sure has been a pleasant surprise for the Bears, as the rest of their receiving corps is almost as inexperienced as he is. Because of the fact that he has done as well as he has, sell as fast as you can. Its not going to go much higher than it is unless he goes for 150 and three TDs somewhere later in the season. That’s a risk I would be willing to take.
The Rookie Graveyard

Here is where I want to talk about some rookies that Im sure are making a few of you guys pretty angry with their lack of contributions to their teams.

Jeremy Maclin - Where the hell have you been? Having 6 receptions for 46 yards on the season is a crap start for a guy I thought would be the star receiver of his class. Wow.

Darrius Heyward-Bey - Im sure having a QB like Jamarcus Russell is a contributing factor, but 1 reception for 18 yards on the whole year is poop. We all know he shouldn’t have been drafted so high, but hot damn, get moving!

Beanie Wells - I think a lot of people are pretty happy that Beanie isnt doing great so far. They say he was a beneficiary of playing at OSU, and it may be starting to show.

Hakeem Nicks - 2 receptions for 19? Doing worse than Hey Bey, but his team doesn’t need him as much. EDIT: Looks like he was injured week 1, my page on NFL.com didnt show that, my fault on this one...

Next week is looking pretty good, especially with Harvin going up against the Packers on Monday night. Now that the rookies are pretty secure in their roles, it could be interesting to see how values respond. Glen Coffee will have his first game against a defense that he can take advantage of, and may have a great game in Gore's absence, Sanchez looks like he may be in for his first test as he faces the Saints, and with the Bears going up against Detroit, who knows.

Also, be sure to check out my rookie of the week write up on the Upper Deck Blog as soon as the player is announced. You can also enter your cards to track the performances of a few of the guys I talk about here and possibly win some prizes if you have the ROW in your portfolio. Pretty cool.

Even if the rookies didn’t come to play, this season has still been a great ride so far. I hope it will continue to be as exciting as it has been, as there have already been some great stories. Next week is when things start to get interesting, so don’t miss it under any circumstances. Trust me, it only gets better from here.

This Is What Boredom Does To A Football Collector

Last week, we had the first product of 2009 hit the shelves, which usually would be a happy day. However, this product is PRE draft and is only put out to cash in on something that many football collectors can identify with - BOREDOM.

2009 Sage is basically the brother of press poop, and this unlicensed product is the first in the brown wave of ugly cards with ugly foil stickers. For college collectors, this product is a wet dream because many of those people couldnt care less about which pro team they are on. For other people, this is a boring attempt to cure the boredom of a lack of affordable products since SPA in December. I hate these cards, and I cant understand the people who bust this shit because they want autos of the 2009 players before the draft even happens. Why couldnt you wait? No, instead, lets pay 30+ dollars for an auto of Mark Sanchez who may not even be a first rounder. Fucking ridiculous. Add in the fact that they will be paying triple to quadruple the value for cards that will bottom out as soon as a real product hits the shelves, and you see what I mean. Hell, even the college collectors, whom this product SHOULD be made for, wont even buy yet on the big guys. Why should they?

I know, I know, people will never learn. Its like they think this year's products will be different. They think that SAGE will hold its value for the first time EVER, and they will be able to cash in. Sure, why not.

This is pretty fucking easy: Dont be stupid, dont be that guy, dont buy this crap, and wait for the draft. There are a lot of question marks this year, and you could easily get screwed by buying this early. Its like having a baseball fantasy draft in february, you can only get hurt by not waiting.